Happy Valley · 2021-02-03
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-03 was Class 2 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. GRATEFUL HEART, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with MULTIMILLION second and SHINING ACE third. Victory came as the 3.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT 0.56.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 3.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | MULTIMILLION B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 9.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SHINING ACE B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 6 | MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 6.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 4 | HONG KONG BET TT N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 2 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 3 | 5.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 10 | 66.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | LARSON CP-/B1/TT M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 7.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 18.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | WINNER SUPREME H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 4 | 67.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GRATEFUL HEART | 51.8% | 1.93 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 12.3% | 8.13 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | SHINING ACE | 10.0% | 10.01 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | HONG KONG BET | 6.3% | 15.95 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | MULTIMILLION | 4.7% | 21.40 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | MASSIVE POCKET | 4.6% | 21.63 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 3.9% | 25.77 | 9 |
| 8 | 9 | LARSON | 3.6% | 27.45 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNER SUPREME | 1.7% | 57.54 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | MEGA HEART | 1.1% | 92.49 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 33.5
PLACE
3 35
5 16
7 28.5
QUINELLA
5,7 133
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 71
3,7 132
5,7 54
FORECAST
5,7 365
TIERCE
5,7,3 1,666
TRIO
3,5,7 407
FIRST 4
3,5,6,7 779
QUARTET
5,7,3,6 11,560
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21
5TH DOUBLE
8/5 118.5
8/7 77.5