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Happy Valley · 2021-02-03

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRIPLE TRIPLE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with INNER FLAME second and AURORA PEGASUS third. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 TRIPLE TRIPLE CP 1.09.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 1 3.4 1-3/4
2 1 INNER FLAME XB/B1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 4 11.0 1-3/4
3 8 AURORA PEGASUS TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 9.4 3-1/4
4 4 ALCARI V K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 18.0 4-3/4
5 7 WINSTON'S LAD B K Teetan · K W Lui 12 15.0 5
6 3 MIG ENERGY XB/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 8.8 5
7 12 BALTIC WHISPER B2/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 6 98.0 5-1/4
8 10 HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan 8 7.9 5-3/4
9 2 JOYFUL UNION CP Z Purton · T P Yung 5 4.6 6-1/4
10 6 PRINCE OF BON BON B- B Shinn · D E Ferraris 2 152.0 7-3/4
11 9 HALL OF CHAMP B H W Lai · D J Hall 7 15.0 7-3/4
12 5 METRO WARRIOR B N Callan · D A Hayes 10 13.0 8-1/2
0 SUNSHINE SUPREME C Schofield · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRIPLE TRIPLE2. INNER FLAME+1.75L3. AURORA PEGASUS+3.25L4. ALCARI+4.75L5. WINSTON'S LAD+5L6. MIG ENERGY+5L7. BALTIC WHISPER+5.25L8. HARRIER JET+5.75L9. JOYFUL UNION+6.25L10. PRINCE OF BON BON+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TRIPLE TRIPLE (18.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 TRIPLE TRIPLE 18.6% 5.38 1
2 3 MIG ENERGY 18.1% 5.52 6
3 8 AURORA PEGASUS 18.1% 5.53 3
4 2 JOYFUL UNION 8.1% 12.40 9
5 9 HALL OF CHAMP 7.2% 13.90 11
6 1 INNER FLAME 6.5% 15.32 2
7 10 HARRIER JET 6.2% 16.05 8
8 5 METRO WARRIOR 6.2% 16.25 12
9 4 ALCARI 4.9% 20.40 4
10 7 WINSTON'S LAD 4.5% 22.35 5
11 12 BALTIC WHISPER 1.2% 86.55 7
12 6 PRINCE OF BON BON 0.5% 186.52 10
TRIPLE TRIPLE — wonMIG ENERGYAURORA PEGASUSJOYFUL UNIONHALL OF CHAMPINNER FLAMEHARRIER JETMETRO WARRIORALCARIWINSTON'S LADBALTIC WHISPERPRINCE OF BON BON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 34

PLACE

1 35

8 33.5

11 15.5

QUINELLA

1,11 235

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 200

1,11 92

8,11 76.5

FORECAST

11,1 469

TIERCE

11,1,8 4,440

TRIO

1,8,11 905

FIRST 4

1,4,8,11 2,144

QUARTET

11,1,8,4 35,854

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19.5

A2

7TH DOUBLE

7/1 53.5

7/11 92