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Happy Valley · 2021-03-10

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 STAY CHILL Closed strongly CP 1.39.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So 1 3.9 SH
2 0 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP/SB/XB/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 4 12.0 SH
3 0 THUNDER STOMP Led early J Moreira · Y S Tsui 5 2.9 1/2
4 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 9 5.4 2
5 0 CHARGE ON B Z Purton · D J Hall 8 4.8 3
6 0 AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 3 24.0 3
8 0 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 12.0 3-3/4
9 0 CIGARY B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 2 112.0 5-1/2
— 0 SUPER HONG KONG E-/B/TT R Maia · A T Millard — 64.0 3

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. STAY CHILL, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with RAINBOW LIGHT second and THUNDER STOMP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite THUNDER STOMP finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STAY CHILL—2. RAINBOW LIGHT+0.1L3. THUNDER STOMP+0.5L4. MORE THAN ENOUGH+2L5. CHARGE ON+3L6. AMAZING LUCK+3L8. REGENCY MASTER+3.75L9. CIGARY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick THUNDER STOMP (29.3%) finished 3rd — the winner STAY CHILL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THUNDER STOMP 29.3% 3.41 3
2 0 CHARGE ON 20.5% 4.87 5
3 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH 15.4% 6.51 4
4 0 STAY CHILL 12.5% 7.98 1
5 0 RAINBOW LIGHT 9.4% 10.59 2
6 0 AMAZING LUCK 6.6% 15.12 6
7 0 REGENCY MASTER 4.5% 22.24 8
8 0 CIGARY 1.0% 95.34 9
9 0 SUPER HONG KONG 0.6% 156.95 —
THUNDER STOMPCHARGE ONMORE THAN ENOUGHSTAY CHILL — wonRAINBOW LIGHTAMAZING LUCKREGENCY MASTERCIGARYSUPER HONG KONG

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 39.5

PLACE

4 32

7 14

9 14

QUINELLA

4,9 316.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 70

4,9 96.5

7,9 26

FORECAST

9,4 445

TIERCE

9,4,7 1,893

TRIO

4,7,9 244

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 183

QUARTET

9,4,7,3 5,810

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 19

A3 —