Happy Valley · 2021-03-10

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 9 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. STAY CHILL, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with RAINBOW LIGHT second and THUNDER STOMP third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite THUNDER STOMP finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.88

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	9	STAY CHILL Closed strongly CP 1.39.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	1	117 lb	3.9	SH
2	4	RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP/SB/XB/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	4	122 lb	12.0	SH
3	7	THUNDER STOMP Led early J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	5	118 lb	2.9	1/2
4	3	MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz	N Callan	A S Cruz	9	127 lb	5.4	2
5	1	CHARGE ON B Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	8	133 lb	4.8	3
6	8	AMAZING LUCK Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	3	116 lb	24.0	3
7	6	SUPER HONG KONG E-/B/TT R Maia · A T Millard	R Maia	A T Millard	7	120 lb	64.0	3
8	2	REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly TT M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	6	129 lb	12.0	3-3/4
9	5	CIGARY B H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	2	120 lb	112.0	5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick THUNDER STOMP (29.3%) finished 3rd — the winner STAY CHILL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	THUNDER STOMP	29.3%	3.41	3	2.9
2	1	CHARGE ON	20.5%	4.87	5	4.8
3	3	MORE THAN ENOUGH	15.4%	6.51	4	5.4
4	9	STAY CHILL	12.5%	7.98	1	3.9
5	4	RAINBOW LIGHT	9.4%	10.59	2	12.0
6	8	AMAZING LUCK	6.6%	15.12	6	24.0
7	2	REGENCY MASTER	4.5%	22.24	8	12.0
8	5	CIGARY	1.0%	95.34	9	112.0
9	6	SUPER HONG KONG	0.6%	156.95	7	64.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 39.5

PLACE

4 32

7 14

9 14

QUINELLA

4,9 316.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 70

4,9 96.5

7,9 26

FORECAST

9,4 445

TIERCE

9,4,7 1,893

TRIO

4,7,9 244

FIRST 4

3,4,7,9 183

QUARTET

9,4,7,3 5,810

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 19

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99