Happy Valley · 2021-03-10
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERO STAR, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with STAR OF WUYI second and SEVEN HEAVENS third. The 2.6 favourite STAR OF WUYI finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HERO STAR TT 1.10.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 1 | 4.7 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | STAR OF WUYI B J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 4 | 2.6 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | SEVEN HEAVENS V-/B2/TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 5 | 4.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | COLONEL V K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 12 | 48.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B R Maia · Y S Tsui | R Maia | Y S Tsui | 11 | 73.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON V/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 8 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | KELMIMI WINS B/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 2 | 163.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 9 | 15.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | GOODMANSHIP K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 7 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | WINNER'S HEART M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 66.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | TRAVEL GLORY A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 12.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | LUCKY TREASURE N Callan · K H Ting | N Callan | K H Ting | 10 | 73.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | STAR OF WUYI | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | HERO STAR | 11.3% | 8.87 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | TRAVEL GLORY | 8.7% | 11.47 | 11 |
| 4 | 4 | GOODMANSHIP | 8.5% | 11.78 | 9 |
| 5 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON | 7.5% | 13.30 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | HOT CHILI PEPPER | 7.4% | 13.53 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | COLONEL | 6.0% | 16.53 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 5.7% | 17.61 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | LUCKY TREASURE | 3.9% | 25.69 | 12 |
| 10 | 7 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 2.7% | 37.15 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | WINNER'S HEART | 2.5% | 39.73 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | KELMIMI WINS | 1.3% | 75.38 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 47
PLACE
3 13
8 15
10 15.5
QUINELLA
8,10 71
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 28
3,10 33.5
8,10 29.5
FORECAST
10,8 201
TIERCE
10,8,3 464
TRIO
3,8,10 62
FIRST 4
1,3,8,10 528
QUARTET
10,8,3,1 10,119
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17
3RD DOUBLE
6/8 39.5
6/10 383.5