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Happy Valley · 2021-03-10

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TANGMERE Closed strongly TT 1.40.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 2 6.3 3/4
2 0 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 7.9 3/4
3 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER Led early B M F Poon · D J Hall 3 4.4 1-1/4
4 0 SHANGHAI GRACE J Moreira · Y S Tsui 6 2.8 4
5 0 HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 12.0 5
6 0 COPARTNER ERA B C Y Ho · W Y So 4 6.1 6-1/4
7 0 ALL YOU KNOW B/TT K C Leung · R Gibson 1 10.0 6-1/2
8 0 CIRCUIT HERO N Callan · P F Yiu 7 59.0 16-1/2
— 0 TRIUMPHANT HORSE R Maia · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TANGMERE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with DREAM WARRIORS second and RED BRICK FIGHTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SHANGHAI GRACE finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TANGMERE—2. DREAM WARRIORS+0.75L3. RED BRICK FIGHTER+1.25L4. SHANGHAI GRACE+4L5. HAPPY WIN WIN+5L6. COPARTNER ERA+6.25L7. ALL YOU KNOW+6.5L8. CIRCUIT HERO+16.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SHANGHAI GRACE (36.2%) finished 4th — the winner TANGMERE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SHANGHAI GRACE 36.2% 2.76 4
2 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 26.8% 3.73 3
3 0 COPARTNER ERA 11.5% 8.72 6
4 0 DREAM WARRIORS 8.1% 12.31 2
5 0 HAPPY WIN WIN 6.2% 16.00 5
6 0 TANGMERE 5.7% 17.59 1
7 0 ALL YOU KNOW 4.6% 21.87 7
8 0 CIRCUIT HERO 0.9% 106.75 8
SHANGHAI GRACERED BRICK FIGHTERCOPARTNER ERADREAM WARRIORSHAPPY WIN WINTANGMERE — wonALL YOU KNOWCIRCUIT HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 63

PLACE

1 21

2 20.5

7 17

QUINELLA

1,2 203.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 68.5

1,7 53.5

2,7 59

FORECAST

1,2 456

TIERCE

1,2,7 1,488

TRIO

1,2,7 315

FIRST 4

1,2,7,9 147

QUARTET

1,2,7,9 4,681

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/1 296

9/2 72.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 22.5

A1 —