Happy Valley · 2021-03-10

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-03-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TANGMERE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with DREAM WARRIORS second and RED BRICK FIGHTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite SHANGHAI GRACE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.40.07

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	TANGMERE Closed strongly TT 1.40.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	2	133 lb	6.3	3/4
2	2	DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	8	129 lb	7.9	3/4
3	7	RED BRICK FIGHTER Led early B M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	3	119 lb	4.4	1-1/4
4	9	SHANGHAI GRACE J Moreira · Y S Tsui	J Moreira	Y S Tsui	6	116 lb	2.8	4
5	4	HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · C H Yip	A Hamelin	C H Yip	5	125 lb	12.0	5
6	8	COPARTNER ERA B C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	4	117 lb	6.1	6-1/4
7	3	ALL YOU KNOW B/TT K C Leung · R Gibson	K C Leung	R Gibson	1	127 lb	10.0	6-1/2
8	5	CIRCUIT HERO N Callan · P F Yiu	N Callan	P F Yiu	7	123 lb	59.0	16-1/2
—	6	TRIUMPHANT HORSE R Maia · K H Ting	R Maia	K H Ting	—	123 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SHANGHAI GRACE (36.2%) finished 4th — the winner TANGMERE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	9	SHANGHAI GRACE	36.2%	2.76	4	2.8
2	7	RED BRICK FIGHTER	26.8%	3.73	3	4.4
3	8	COPARTNER ERA	11.5%	8.72	6	6.1
4	2	DREAM WARRIORS	8.1%	12.31	2	7.9
5	4	HAPPY WIN WIN	6.2%	16.00	5	12.0
6	1	TANGMERE	5.7%	17.59	1	6.3
7	3	ALL YOU KNOW	4.6%	21.87	7	10.0
8	5	CIRCUIT HERO	0.9%	106.75	8	59.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 63

PLACE

1 21

2 20.5

7 17

QUINELLA

1,2 203.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 68.5

1,7 53.5

2,7 59

FORECAST

1,2 456

TIERCE

1,2,7 1,488

TRIO

1,2,7 315

FIRST 4

1,2,7,9 147

QUARTET

1,2,7,9 4,681

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/1 296

9/2 72.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 22.5

A1 —

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