Sha Tin · 2021-03-31

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 9 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ALL FOR ST PAUL'S, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with ELITE PATCH second and TANGMERE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.2 favourite ELITE PATCH finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.96

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Wire to wire B 1.47.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor	M F Poon	F C Lor	4	116 lb	6.2	1
2	1	ELITE PATCH Closed strongly B/H/TT C L Chau · K W Lui	C L Chau	K W Lui	1	126 lb	3.2	1
3	6	TANGMERE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	8	119 lb	18.0	1-1/4
4	9	AWE Closed strongly XB/CP2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes	M L Yeung	D A Hayes	5	115 lb	13.0	3
5	5	PARTY EVERYDAY H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	3	119 lb	5.2	5-1/2
6	4	PING HAI TREASURE P J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	9	123 lb	3.7	8-1/4
7	7	VILLA FIONN B R Maia · P F Yiu	R Maia	P F Yiu	7	119 lb	25.0	17-1/2
8	2	PARTERRE B K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	6	130 lb	12.0	23-1/4
9	3	GREAT TREASURE K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	2	125 lb	28.0	29-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick PING HAI TREASURE (27.4%) finished 6th — the winner ALL FOR ST PAUL'S was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	PING HAI TREASURE	27.4%	3.64	6	3.7
2	5	PARTY EVERYDAY	22.3%	4.48	5	5.2
3	8	ALL FOR ST PAUL'S	14.6%	6.84	1	6.2
4	1	ELITE PATCH	10.5%	9.52	2	3.2
5	6	TANGMERE	7.6%	13.24	3	18.0
6	9	AWE	7.4%	13.45	4	13.0
7	7	VILLA FIONN	5.5%	18.29	7	25.0
8	3	GREAT TREASURE	3.2%	30.81	9	28.0
9	2	PARTERRE	1.4%	71.58	8	12.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 62

PLACE

1 12

6 41

8 20

QUINELLA

1,8 83

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 78

1,8 28.5

6,8 125

FORECAST

8,1 182

TIERCE

8,1,6 1,947

TRIO

1,6,8 420

FIRST 4

1,6,8,9 588

QUARTET

8,1,6,9 11,792

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/1 23.5

1/8 255.5

3 PICK 1

A2 23.5

A1 —

A3 —

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