Sha Tin · 2021-03-31
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUNSET WATCH, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by DH, with LUCKY FUN second and MOERAKI third. The 2.5 favourite LUCKY FUN finished 1st.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUNSET WATCH P 1.08.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 11 | 41.0 | DH |
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY FUN H- 1.08.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 12 | 2.5 | DH |
| 3 | 10 | MOERAKI B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 6.5 | SH |
| 4 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR P1 J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 10.0 | N |
| 5 | 6 | FLYING BONUS P K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 8 | 7.8 | 1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | MAN STAR V K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 5 | 5.0 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES P-/XB/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 6 | 58.0 | 3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | HARRIER JET B C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 35.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SICOMORO B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 1 | 151.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | GUNNISON H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 9 | 9.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SUPER POWER MAN M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 10 | 38.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 3 | 28.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY FUN | 38.5% | 2.59 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR | 16.2% | 6.15 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | MOERAKI | 13.7% | 7.29 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | MAN STAR | 9.3% | 10.70 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | FLYING BONUS | 5.9% | 16.92 | 5 |
| 6 | 8 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 5.6% | 17.99 | 12 |
| 7 | 11 | HARRIER JET | 2.9% | 34.79 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | SUNSET WATCH | 2.7% | 37.02 | 1 |
| 9 | 1 | GUNNISON | 1.9% | 53.55 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | SUPER POWER MAN | 1.8% | 55.01 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | GAMEPLAYER TIMES | 1.0% | 100.60 | 7 |
| 12 | 2 | SICOMORO | 0.4% | 241.69 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 208.5
5 13
PLACE
3 88
5 13.5
10 19
QUINELLA
3,5 544.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 179
3,10 333.5
5,10 35
FORECAST
3,5 651
5,3 362
TIERCE
3,5,10 4,838
5,3,10 2,602
TRIO
3,5,10 1,143
FIRST 4
3,5,7,10 1,376
QUARTET
3,5,10,7 22,369
5,3,10,7 13,265
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 10.1
A3 19
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
5/3 727.5
5/5 123.5