Sha Tin · 2021-03-31
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FAIRY FLOSS Closed strongly CP/H 1.48.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 2.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER Closed strongly B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 11 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | PROUD SKY Closed strongly V M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 4 | 26.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | MISTER MONTE CP-/B2 C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 5 | 7.9 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | SKY GEM Closed strongly PC1 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 1 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | REGENCY GEM Led early TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 8 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | GOLDEN GENERAL Closed strongly SR H N Wong · D E Ferraris | H N Wong | D E Ferraris | 14 | 41.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC Closed strongly B/XB/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 13 | 62.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | GENERAL DINO Closed strongly B J Moreira · R Gibson | J Moreira | R Gibson | 6 | 5.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | PRECISION DREAM H C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 2 | 54.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE CP/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 12 | 16.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B R Maia · K H Ting | R Maia | K H Ting | 9 | 45.0 | 14 |
| 13 | 0 | STAR WIN CP-/P1 T Piccone · D J Whyte | T Piccone | D J Whyte | 10 | 140.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 14 | 0 | GREAT SMART CP/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 23.0 | 19 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. FAIRY FLOSS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 1/2, with DRAGON COMMANDER second and PROUD SKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FAIRY FLOSS | 29.1% | 3.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | GENERAL DINO | 20.5% | 4.89 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | SKY GEM | 14.8% | 6.74 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | REGENCY GEM | 6.4% | 15.73 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 6.0% | 16.73 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | GREAT SMART | 4.4% | 22.74 | 14 |
| 7 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 4.4% | 22.94 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 3.4% | 29.09 | 11 |
| 9 | 0 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE | 2.4% | 41.13 | 12 |
| 10 | 0 | REEVE'S MUNTJAC | 2.4% | 42.39 | 8 |
| 11 | 0 | PROUD SKY | 2.1% | 47.29 | 3 |
| 12 | 0 | PRECISION DREAM | 1.5% | 66.31 | 10 |
| 13 | 0 | STAR WIN | 1.4% | 69.63 | 13 |
| 14 | 0 | GOLDEN GENERAL | 1.3% | 78.53 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 24
PLACE
4 30.5
9 12.5
13 61.5
QUINELLA
4,9 149
QUINELLA PLACE
4,9 55.5
4,13 276
9,13 138.5
FORECAST
9,4 218
TIERCE
9,4,13 2,755
TRIO
4,9,13 842
FIRST 4
2,4,9,13 747
QUARTET
9,4,13,2 12,725
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16
3RD DOUBLE
10/4 284.5
10/9 559.5