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Sha Tin · 2021-03-31

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HAPPY TANGO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1, with SEVEN HEAVENS second and MERCURIAL third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 HAPPY TANGO B 1.09.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · Y S Tsui 1 2.7 1
2 3 SEVEN HEAVENS B/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 8 4.9 1
3 2 MERCURIAL H1/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 2 5.3 1-3/4
4 4 STRIKING MR C B/TT R Maia · T P Yung 3 32.0 1-3/4
5 9 ZACIAN C Wong · A T Millard 5 93.0 3-1/4
6 7 DEMONS ROCK B H T Mo · D J Hall 6 24.0 3-1/4
7 8 DOLLAR REWARD P/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 10.0 3-1/4
8 1 BLOTTING PAPER B C L Chau · R Gibson 7 8.4 4-3/4
9 6 MAGIC BONUS B-/H1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 143.0 5
10 12 SMART HUNTER B/XB T Piccone · D J Whyte 9 99.0 7-1/4
11 5 GOLDIE FLANKER B M Chadwick · K L Man 4 23.0 7-1/4
12 10 HAPPILY FRIENDS H K Teetan · K H Ting 12 10.0 8

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY TANGO2. SEVEN HEAVENS+1L3. MERCURIAL+1.75L4. STRIKING MR C+1.75L5. ZACIAN+3.25L6. DEMONS ROCK+3.25L7. DOLLAR REWARD+3.25L8. BLOTTING PAPER+4.75L9. MAGIC BONUS+5L10. SMART HUNTER+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HAPPY TANGO (31.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 HAPPY TANGO 31.5% 3.17 1
2 2 MERCURIAL 19.3% 5.19 3
3 10 HAPPILY FRIENDS 9.5% 10.58 12
4 3 SEVEN HEAVENS 8.8% 11.38 2
5 8 DOLLAR REWARD 7.6% 13.13 7
6 7 DEMONS ROCK 5.3% 18.88 6
7 5 GOLDIE FLANKER 4.9% 20.49 11
8 1 BLOTTING PAPER 4.1% 24.54 8
9 4 STRIKING MR C 3.8% 26.30 4
10 12 SMART HUNTER 2.7% 36.83 10
11 9 ZACIAN 1.9% 51.92 5
12 6 MAGIC BONUS 0.7% 147.60 9
HAPPY TANGO — wonMERCURIALHAPPILY FRIENDSSEVEN HEAVENSDOLLAR REWARDDEMONS ROCKGOLDIE FLANKERBLOTTING PAPERSTRIKING MR CSMART HUNTERZACIANMAGIC BONUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 27

PLACE

2 18

3 16

11 14

QUINELLA

3,11 71

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 53

2,11 34.5

3,11 31.5

FORECAST

11,3 145

TIERCE

11,3,2 437

TRIO

2,3,11 121

FIRST 4

2,3,4,11 752

QUARTET

11,3,2,4 8,261

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 17.5

5TH DOUBLE

3/3 80.5

3/11 349.5