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Sha Tin · 2021-03-31

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GALLANT LEGACY, ridden by R Maia and trained by C W Chang, won by 2, with JADE PHOENIX second and HANDSOME REBEL third. The 3.3 favourite JADE PHOENIX finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 GALLANT LEGACY SR-/TT 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · C W Chang 1 9.4 2
2 4 JADE PHOENIX B J Moreira · F C Lor 2 3.3 2
3 3 HANDSOME REBEL B/TT- K C Leung · Y S Tsui 9 7.4 2
4 11 THE BEST HERO V M F Poon · L Ho 6 13.0 2-1/4
5 2 THOU SHALL SING B C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 5.5 3-1/2
6 7 GOODMANSHIP C L Chau · D J Whyte 12 51.0 3-3/4
7 5 COOLCELEB PC/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 3 6.6 3-3/4
8 6 MELBOURNE HALL H/XB B Shinn · D J Hall 8 47.0 5-3/4
9 9 SEA MONARCH V/H1/TT- M L Yeung · W Y So 10 72.0 11-3/4
10 1 COLONEL V K H Chan · P F Yiu 11 8.9 12-1/2
11 8 PICHU H/XB/TT T Piccone · K H Ting 7 147.0 14
12 SPEEDY OPTIMIST A Badel · C Fownes 5 10.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT LEGACY2. JADE PHOENIX+2L3. HANDSOME REBEL+2L4. THE BEST HERO+2.25L5. THOU SHALL SING+3.5L6. GOODMANSHIP+3.75L7. COOLCELEB+3.75L8. MELBOURNE HALL+5.75L9. SEA MONARCH+11.75L10. COLONEL+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (54.0%) finished 2nd — the winner GALLANT LEGACY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JADE PHOENIX 54.0% 1.85 2
2 2 THOU SHALL SING 10.6% 9.45 5
3 5 COOLCELEB 6.0% 16.59 7
4 1 COLONEL 5.9% 16.88 10
5 11 THE BEST HERO 4.6% 21.60 4
6 3 HANDSOME REBEL 4.5% 22.32 3
7 6 MELBOURNE HALL 4.3% 23.45 8
8 7 GOODMANSHIP 3.8% 26.32 6
9 10 GALLANT LEGACY 3.4% 29.65 1
10 9 SEA MONARCH 2.2% 44.47 9
11 8 PICHU 0.7% 151.64 11
JADE PHOENIXTHOU SHALL SINGCOOLCELEBCOLONELTHE BEST HEROHANDSOME REBELMELBOURNE HALLGOODMANSHIPGALLANT LEGACY — wonSEA MONARCHPICHU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 94.5

PLACE

3 23.5

4 15

10 38.5

QUINELLA

4,10 287

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 51.5

3,10 135.5

4,10 88.5

FORECAST

10,4 634

TIERCE

10,4,3 3,807

TRIO

3,4,10 676

FIRST 4

3,4,10,11 1,271

QUARTET

10,4,3,11 42,052

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

8/4 40

8/10 922.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 27