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Sha Tin · 2021-03-31

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. GLORIOUS ARTIST, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with PRECIOUSSHIP second and HONGKONG GREAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite ELUSIVE STATE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.37.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly 1.37.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 9 5.3 N
2 4 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB T Piccone · P F Yiu 6 33.0 N
3 8 HONGKONG GREAT B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 11 5.0 1-1/2
4 2 ELUSIVE STATE Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 1 3.5 2-1/4
5 1 KINGS SHIELD Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 3 10.0 2-3/4
6 5 RED DESERT C Schofield · J Size 10 9.9 4-1/2
7 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 10.0 6-1/4
8 10 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB A Badel · C W Chang 2 13.0 7-3/4
9 9 MAGNIFICENT H N Wong · K H Ting 5 14.0 8
10 11 HOLY HEART Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 4 31.0 9-3/4
11 6 ENCORE BOY B M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 21.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLORIOUS ARTIST2. PRECIOUSSHIP+0.05L3. HONGKONG GREAT+1.5L4. ELUSIVE STATE+2.25L5. KINGS SHIELD+2.75L6. RED DESERT+4.5L7. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+6.25L8. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+7.75L9. MAGNIFICENT+8L10. HOLY HEART+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick ELUSIVE STATE (19.7%) finished 4th — the winner GLORIOUS ARTIST was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 ELUSIVE STATE 19.7% 5.07 4
2 8 HONGKONG GREAT 17.6% 5.69 3
3 11 HOLY HEART 16.3% 6.15 10
4 3 GLORIOUS ARTIST 8.2% 12.19 1
5 10 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.9% 12.62 8
6 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 7.3% 13.67 7
7 5 RED DESERT 6.3% 15.99 6
8 6 ENCORE BOY 5.4% 18.46 11
9 9 MAGNIFICENT 5.4% 18.59 9
10 1 KINGS SHIELD 3.5% 28.28 5
11 4 PRECIOUSSHIP 2.4% 41.99 2
ELUSIVE STATEHONGKONG GREATHOLY HEARTGLORIOUS ARTIST — wonRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINECALIFORNIADEEPSHOTRED DESERTENCORE BOYMAGNIFICENTKINGS SHIELDPRECIOUSSHIP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

3 17.5

4 72

8 19.5

QUINELLA

3,4 886.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 237.5

3,8 55

4,8 252

FORECAST

3,4 1,172

TIERCE

3,4,8 9,627

TRIO

3,4,8 1,552

FIRST 4

2,3,4,8 828

QUARTET

3,4,8,2 25,412

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 25.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,10/3,4,8 172,536

8TH DOUBLE

3/3 1,120.5

3/4 506

5/3 102.5

5/4 91

SIX UP

4,9/3,10/3,11/5,10/3,5/3,4 3,648

9/3/11/5/3/3 1,278,408

9/3/11/5/5/3 15,929

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5/3/3 6,488

5/3/4 2,352

5/5/3 781

5/5/4 972