Sha Tin · 2021-03-31
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B 1.39.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 11.0 | HD |
| 2 | 0 | EL VALIENTE Closed strongly B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 4.9 | HD |
| 3 | 0 | LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 12 | 3.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | LAND POWER Led early B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 2 | 5.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | BEST FOR YOU B K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 1 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 3 | 7.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | OFF THE REEL Closed strongly K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 7 | 25.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL B-/TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 4 | 54.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | SUN SUN FA FA TT C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 5 | 97.0 | 14 |
| 10 | 0 | DEAL MAKER H C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 6 | 10.0 | 15-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | RUBY STARS B-/TT N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 10 | 89.0 | 19-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 44.0 | 24-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-03-31 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HANG'S DECISION, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with EL VALIENTE second and LADY FIRST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite LADY FIRST finished 3rd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 27.0% | 3.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | LAND POWER | 14.3% | 7.00 | 4 |
| 3 | 0 | YES WE CAN | 12.2% | 8.21 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | LADY FIRST | 8.9% | 11.27 | 3 |
| 5 | 0 | BEST FOR YOU | 8.5% | 11.72 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | HANG'S DECISION | 8.5% | 11.83 | 1 |
| 7 | 0 | DEAL MAKER | 7.2% | 13.85 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | OFF THE REEL | 5.6% | 17.90 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 2.5% | 39.51 | 8 |
| 10 | 0 | SUN SUN FA FA | 2.3% | 44.09 | 9 |
| 11 | 0 | LIGHT MY DAY | 1.9% | 51.78 | 12 |
| 12 | 0 | RUBY STARS | 1.2% | 86.06 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 110.5
PLACE
2 13.5
3 34
10 20.5
QUINELLA
3,10 302
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 78
2,10 31
3,10 96
FORECAST
3,10 492
TIERCE
3,10,2 1,949
TRIO
2,3,10 242
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 409
QUARTET
3,10,2,4 11,604
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,9,13/2,3,10 12,487
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 23.5
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/3 223
9/10 18.5