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Happy Valley · 2021-05-19

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. RED MAJESTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with WONDERFUL TIGER second and WONDER EXPRESS third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.39
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RED MAJESTY Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 8 1.9 1-1/4
2 10 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 1 20.0 1-1/4
3 5 WONDER EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · K H Ting 5 7.0 1-1/4
4 7 DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 4 8.0 1-1/2
5 8 CENTENARY IBIS XB/B2/TT V Borges · A T Millard 7 32.0 2-1/4
6 11 STRAPPING BAUHINIA Closed strongly B- M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 12.0 4-1/4
7 9 INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly TT2 R Maia · C W Chang 9 18.0 4-1/2
8 2 FOCUS B-/CP1 C Wong · P F Yiu 6 16.0 4-1/2
9 1 CALIFORNIA LEGEND Closed strongly TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz 11 23.0 5-1/2
10 3 BABY STORM P-/H/TT K C Leung · L Ho 2 13.0 5-1/2
11 12 FIRE AND GOLD Closed strongly B/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 12 111.0 7
12 6 VIRTUS STAR TT C Schofield · F C Lor 10 29.0 17

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED MAJESTY2. WONDERFUL TIGER+1.25L3. WONDER EXPRESS+1.25L4. DIAMOND STAR+1.5L5. CENTENARY IBIS+2.25L6. STRAPPING BAUHINIA+4.25L7. INDIGENOUS STAR+4.5L8. FOCUS+4.5L9. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+5.5L10. BABY STORM+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick RED MAJESTY (24.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 RED MAJESTY 24.3% 4.11 1
2 7 DIAMOND STAR 20.3% 4.93 4
3 5 WONDER EXPRESS 13.5% 7.40 3
4 3 BABY STORM 13.1% 7.65 10
5 8 CENTENARY IBIS 6.9% 14.57 5
6 10 WONDERFUL TIGER 4.9% 20.42 2
7 6 VIRTUS STAR 4.9% 20.50 12
8 11 STRAPPING BAUHINIA 3.8% 26.43 6
9 1 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 3.0% 33.17 9
10 9 INDIGENOUS STAR 2.3% 44.03 7
11 2 FOCUS 2.0% 50.82 8
12 12 FIRE AND GOLD 1.1% 88.36 11
RED MAJESTY — wonDIAMOND STARWONDER EXPRESSBABY STORMCENTENARY IBISWONDERFUL TIGERVIRTUS STARSTRAPPING BAUHINIACALIFORNIA LEGENDINDIGENOUS STARFOCUSFIRE AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 19.5

PLACE

4 12.5

5 18

10 45.5

QUINELLA

4,10 174.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 27.5

4,10 71.5

5,10 137.5

FORECAST

4,10 186

TIERCE

4,10,5 1,044

TRIO

4,5,10 237

FIRST 4

4,5,7,10 296

QUARTET

4,10,5,7 4,219

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 15

A3