Happy Valley · 2021-05-19
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TRANSCENDENT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with ALCARI second and STOICISM third. The 3.1 favourite STOICISM finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 3 | 3.3 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | ALCARI V H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 9 | 23.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | STOICISM K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 3.1 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | THE RUNNER M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 10 | 6.9 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | AURORA PEGASUS TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 19.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 78.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 11 | 68.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 15.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | MEHBOOB B/XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 37.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | SPECIAL M B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 9.2 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | STOCK LEGEND H/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 8 | 7.8 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | STOCK LEGEND | 23.3% | 4.28 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | TRANSCENDENT | 16.4% | 6.12 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | THE RUNNER | 13.6% | 7.37 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPECIAL M | 11.5% | 8.70 | 10 |
| 5 | 8 | AURORA PEGASUS | 8.1% | 12.27 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | STOICISM | 7.2% | 13.86 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 6.6% | 15.25 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | ALCARI | 4.7% | 21.08 | 2 |
| 9 | 2 | MEGA HEART | 3.9% | 25.91 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | MEHBOOB | 2.7% | 37.08 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 2.0% | 49.40 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 33.5
PLACE
5 15
6 52.5
7 15
QUINELLA
5,6 406.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 121.5
5,7 26.5
6,7 106.5
FORECAST
5,6 597
TIERCE
5,6,7 2,213
TRIO
5,6,7 332
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 354
QUARTET
5,6,7,4 8,841
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 23.5
A2 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
9/5 1,515
9/6 1,150.5