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Happy Valley · 2021-05-19

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SAVVY KINGMAN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with MORE THAN ENOUGH second and THUNDER STOMP third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SAVVY KINGMAN Wire to wire 1.39.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 7 2.6 1
2 1 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 4.7 1
3 10 THUNDER STOMP Closed strongly B- C Wong · Y S Tsui 9 12.0 2-1/2
4 3 ROYAL RACER Closed strongly V K H Chan · C Fownes 5 11.0 2-1/2
5 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly B-/V1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 7.5 3-3/4
6 6 CHATER PINS Closed strongly XB A Badel · D A Hayes 10 8.6 3-3/4
7 8 SUPER BULLET B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 68.0 5
8 4 MING WARRIOR TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris 1 9.2 6-1/4
9 12 LIGHT MY DAY CP/TT H N Wong · C H Yip 2 76.0 6-1/2
10 9 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · A T Millard 8 24.0 9-3/4
11 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man 12 42.0 10-1/4
12 2 SINCERE BOY B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 6 89.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAVVY KINGMAN2. MORE THAN ENOUGH+1L3. THUNDER STOMP+2.5L4. ROYAL RACER+2.5L5. SEAWEED FORTUNE+3.75L6. CHATER PINS+3.75L7. SUPER BULLET+5L8. MING WARRIOR+6.25L9. LIGHT MY DAY+6.5L10. SUPER HONG KONG+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (31.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SAVVY KINGMAN 31.9% 3.13 1
2 1 MORE THAN ENOUGH 17.5% 5.71 2
3 3 ROYAL RACER 14.7% 6.82 4
4 5 SEAWEED FORTUNE 8.0% 12.47 5
5 6 CHATER PINS 8.0% 12.56 6
6 10 THUNDER STOMP 3.9% 25.33 3
7 9 SUPER HONG KONG 3.8% 26.05 10
8 4 MING WARRIOR 3.1% 32.06 8
9 8 SUPER BULLET 3.1% 32.51 7
10 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS 2.6% 38.86 11
11 12 LIGHT MY DAY 2.0% 50.08 9
12 2 SINCERE BOY 1.4% 73.83 12
SAVVY KINGMAN — wonMORE THAN ENOUGHROYAL RACERSEAWEED FORTUNECHATER PINSTHUNDER STOMPSUPER HONG KONGMING WARRIORSUPER BULLETALL BEST FRIENDSLIGHT MY DAYSINCERE BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 26.5

PLACE

1 16.5

7 12.5

10 44

QUINELLA

1,7 70

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 30

1,10 97.5

7,10 78.5

FORECAST

7,1 106

TIERCE

7,1,10 1,399

TRIO

1,7,10 427

FIRST 4

1,3,7,10 672

QUARTET

7,1,10,3 8,940

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 17

A3

A2

5TH DOUBLE

7/1 49

7/7 111.5