Happy Valley · 2021-05-19
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. NITRO EXPRESS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 3-1/4, with SHINEALOT second and PRESIDENT STAR third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NITRO EXPRESS Wire to wire B/TT 1.39.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 5 | 3.2 | 3-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly B- V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | PRESIDENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 7 | 7.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 10 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | FOX CHEUNGER Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 12 | 75.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | BIG BANG BONG B A Badel · C W Chang | A Badel | C W Chang | 3 | 6.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | HAPPY ICHIBAN B A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 1 | 5.2 | 11-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 2 | 19.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | GALAXY RACER B/H/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 8 | 14.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | E HONEY C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 11 | 9.7 | 18-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | ROSSE SCARPE H K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 74.0 | 21-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SMART THINKER B-/TT- H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 9 | 17.0 | 22 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | NITRO EXPRESS | 18.5% | 5.42 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | PRESIDENT STAR | 16.1% | 6.21 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | GALAXY RACER | 9.8% | 10.22 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | E HONEY | 8.8% | 11.42 | 10 |
| 5 | 11 | ENJOYABLE SUCCESS | 8.3% | 12.07 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | SHINEALOT | 8.2% | 12.23 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | HAPPY ICHIBAN | 8.1% | 12.37 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | BIG BANG BONG | 7.5% | 13.33 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | JOY N FUN LEGEND | 5.6% | 17.70 | 4 |
| 10 | 8 | SMART THINKER | 4.7% | 21.31 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | FOX CHEUNGER | 3.2% | 31.32 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | ROSSE SCARPE | 1.3% | 76.02 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 32.5
PLACE
2 22.5
5 14
10 41
QUINELLA
5,10 245
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 37
2,10 138
5,10 86.5
FORECAST
5,10 441
TIERCE
5,10,2 2,567
TRIO
2,5,10 540
FIRST 4
2,5,10,12 1,397
QUARTET
5,10,2,12 27,797
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/5 67
4/10 60
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 21.5