Happy Valley · 2021-05-19
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. UNIVERSAL GO GO, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with FORTUNE CARRIER second and SIGHT HERO third. The 2.9 favourite FLAMING PASSION finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT 1.09.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 1 | 4.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | FORTUNE CARRIER B2 C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 11 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | SIGHT HERO CP A Badel · D A Hayes | A Badel | D A Hayes | 10 | 7.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | ISLAND SHINE B K H Chan · P F Yiu | K H Chan | P F Yiu | 9 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | INNO LEGEND CP-/V1 K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 5 | 8.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | DRAGON BABY TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 6 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD SHOT XB H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 12 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | SPLIT OF A SECOND CP/H A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 3 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | EVER JOY XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | FLAMING PASSION CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 8 | 2.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING V H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 4 | 24.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 7 | 76.0 | 5-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 22.6% | 4.43 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | FLAMING PASSION | 17.0% | 5.90 | 10 |
| 3 | 2 | DRAGON BABY | 14.7% | 6.80 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | INNO LEGEND | 12.7% | 7.89 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | SIGHT HERO | 10.0% | 9.95 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | ISLAND SHINE | 5.6% | 17.76 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | GOOD SHOT | 5.1% | 19.71 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 4.2% | 23.99 | 11 |
| 9 | 11 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 3.8% | 26.52 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 1.9% | 53.66 | 2 |
| 11 | 6 | EVER JOY | 1.5% | 66.69 | 9 |
| 12 | 12 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.0% | 95.90 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 48.5
PLACE
8 26
9 15.5
10 38.5
QUINELLA
9,10 410.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 54
8,10 181.5
9,10 127.5
FORECAST
9,10 754
TIERCE
9,10,8 4,555
TRIO
8,9,10 916
FIRST 4
1,8,9,10 1,288
7,8,9,10 738
QUARTET
9,10,8,1 29,815
9,10,8,7 19,412
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 24
3RD DOUBLE
9/9 353.5
9/10 447.5