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Happy Valley · 2021-05-19

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 XIANG BAI QI Closed strongly B 1.48.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D E Ferraris 12 10.0 1/2
2 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V2 C Wong · C H Yip 9 90.0 1/2
3 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 5 8.9 2
4 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly A Hamelin · C S Shum 11 43.0 2-1/4
5 0 FAST PACE Led early H M Chadwick · C Fownes 8 11.0 2-1/4
6 0 WORLD FAMOUS B/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu 2 7.3 2-3/4
7 0 SUPERBELLA V/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 6 2.2 3-3/4
8 0 CINQUANTE CINQ M F Poon · T P Yung 10 31.0 4
9 0 ENTRUSTED CP/TT H Bentley · W Y So 1 14.0 5
10 0 CHEERFUL DAYS B A Badel · K W Lui 4 7.1 6-1/4
11 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT K C Leung · D J Hall 3 20.0 9-3/4
12 0 STAR OF GLORY B H T Mo · C W Chang 7 180.0 13-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-19 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. XIANG BAI QI, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D E Ferraris, won by 1/2, with MURRAY'S PARTNERS second and GOLDEN SPECTRUM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite SUPERBELLA finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. XIANG BAI QI—2. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+0.5L3. GOLDEN SPECTRUM+2L4. DYNAMIC EAGLE+2.25L5. FAST PACE+2.25L6. WORLD FAMOUS+2.75L7. SUPERBELLA+3.75L8. CINQUANTE CINQ+4L9. ENTRUSTED+5L10. CHEERFUL DAYS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUPERBELLA (31.8%) finished 7th — the winner XIANG BAI QI was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPERBELLA 31.8% 3.14 7
2 0 CHEERFUL DAYS 29.4% 3.40 10
3 0 FAST PACE 6.7% 14.83 5
4 0 XIANG BAI QI 6.7% 14.87 1
5 0 ENTRUSTED 5.4% 18.42 9
6 0 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.6% 21.95 3
7 0 WORLD FAMOUS 4.5% 22.02 6
8 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE 3.8% 26.38 4
9 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 3.6% 28.02 11
10 0 CINQUANTE CINQ 2.1% 47.80 8
11 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 1.1% 93.84 2
12 0 STAR OF GLORY 0.3% 321.90 12
SUPERBELLACHEERFUL DAYSFAST PACEXIANG BAI QI — wonENTRUSTEDGOLDEN SPECTRUMWORLD FAMOUSDYNAMIC EAGLEBUNDLE OF DELIGHTCINQUANTE CINQMURRAY'S PARTNERSSTAR OF GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 106

PLACE

2 26

4 28

12 157.5

QUINELLA

4,12 5,226.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 112

2,12 1,130.5

4,12 1,166.5

FORECAST

4,12 8,585

TIERCE

4,12,2 94,444

TRIO

2,4,12 13,203

FIRST 4

2,4,6,12 26,986

QUARTET

4,12,2,6 563,242

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 25.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,7/2,4,12 645,887

8TH DOUBLE

5/4 538

5/12 509.5

SIX UP

9/7/7/9/5/4 2,650,705

9,10/6,7/1,7/2,9/5,6/4,12 34,036

1 [J Moreira] —

TREBLE

9/5/4 26,345

9/5/12 20,606