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Happy Valley · 2021-05-26

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VIVA MAMA, ridden by H T Mo and trained by L Ho, won by SH, with FOR FUN'S SAKE second and AFTER ME third. The 3.4 favourite E HONEY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.78
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 VIVA MAMA TT 1.09.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · L Ho 8 5.6 SH
2 12 FOR FUN'S SAKE SR-/E1/TT2 M L Yeung · W Y So 10 16.0 SH
3 3 AFTER ME B H W Lai · D E Ferraris 3 8.1 N
4 10 XIANG LAN QI B/TT A Badel · K L Man 1 6.6 1/2
5 5 M M JOHNNY B K Teetan · Y S Tsui 12 11.0 1-1/4
6 2 E HONEY XB1/TT1 Z Purton · C Fownes 5 3.4 2-1/2
7 11 LUCKY TURBO B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 49.0 3
8 4 DR PROACTIVE H Bentley · K H Ting 4 12.0 3
9 8 STAR SUPERIOR T Piccone · C W Chang 7 29.0 4-1/2
10 7 SMILING FACE XB-/B J Moreira · D J Whyte 6 7.6 4-3/4
11 6 GORGEOUS INHERITOR M F Poon · C H Yip 9 23.0 5
12 1 JUMBO ENGINE B- A Hamelin · R Gibson 11 70.0 9
0 SPICY GRILL J Moreira · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA MAMA2. FOR FUN'S SAKE+0.1L3. AFTER ME+0.05L4. XIANG LAN QI+0.5L5. M M JOHNNY+1.25L6. E HONEY+2.5L7. LUCKY TURBO+3L8. DR PROACTIVE+3L9. STAR SUPERIOR+4.5L10. SMILING FACE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SMILING FACE (31.8%) finished 10th — the winner VIVA MAMA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SMILING FACE 31.8% 3.14 10
2 2 E HONEY 21.1% 4.74 6
3 10 XIANG LAN QI 11.7% 8.58 4
4 5 M M JOHNNY 6.8% 14.64 5
5 9 VIVA MAMA 6.8% 14.66 1
6 4 DR PROACTIVE 6.6% 15.08 8
7 6 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 3.2% 31.11 11
8 8 STAR SUPERIOR 2.8% 35.19 9
9 3 AFTER ME 2.8% 35.58 3
10 11 LUCKY TURBO 2.4% 41.55 7
11 1 JUMBO ENGINE 2.3% 44.26 12
12 12 FOR FUN'S SAKE 1.6% 62.38 2
SMILING FACEE HONEYXIANG LAN QIM M JOHNNYVIVA MAMA — wonDR PROACTIVEGORGEOUS INHERITORSTAR SUPERIORAFTER MELUCKY TURBOJUMBO ENGINEFOR FUN'S SAKE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 56.5

PLACE

3 21

9 19

12 50.5

QUINELLA

9,12 440.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 70

3,12 242

9,12 145.5

FORECAST

9,12 999

TIERCE

9,12,3 5,306

TRIO

3,9,12 1,470

FIRST 4

3,9,10,12 1,486

QUARTET

9,12,3,10 31,845

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21.5

A2

A3