Happy Valley · 2021-05-26
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOLLY GOOD HEART, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with TELECOM SMART second and HERO STAR third. The 2.8 favourite TELECOM SMART finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | JOLLY GOOD HEART 1.09.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 11 | 12.0 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | TELECOM SMART TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 2 | 2.8 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | HERO STAR TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 12 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | FALCON TURBO B M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 7 | 6.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | LORIZ A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.1 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | WHO LOVES THE ACE TT1 A Badel · C Fownes | A Badel | C Fownes | 4 | 31.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | TEAM GOODLUCK TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 1 | 5.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 10 | CASA KINGDOM B/XB J Moreira · D A Hayes | J Moreira | D A Hayes | 9 | 9.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | EASY FORTUNE M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 10 | 110.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | ZELUS CP T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 5 | 141.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | MR LUMIERES V B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 8 | 35.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 6 | 15.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | TELECOM SMART | 24.7% | 4.04 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | CASA KINGDOM | 17.1% | 5.86 | 8 |
| 3 | 8 | TEAM GOODLUCK | 15.1% | 6.60 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 11.1% | 8.97 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | LORIZ | 9.5% | 10.47 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | HERO STAR | 7.1% | 14.05 | 3 |
| 7 | 1 | FALCON TURBO | 5.9% | 16.81 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | HOT CHILI PEPPER | 3.7% | 26.70 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | MR LUMIERES | 3.4% | 29.45 | 11 |
| 10 | 7 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 1.2% | 81.65 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | EASY FORTUNE | 0.5% | 206.17 | 9 |
| 12 | 11 | ZELUS | 0.4% | 223.46 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 123
PLACE
3 15.5
4 31.5
6 41
QUINELLA
3,4 192.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 72
3,6 59
4,6 153.5
FORECAST
4,3 437
TIERCE
4,3,6 3,058
TRIO
3,4,6 319
FIRST 4
1,3,4,6 585
QUARTET
4,3,6,1 17,681
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 30.5
A1 —
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
12/3 51
12/4 1,305.5