Happy Valley · 2021-05-26
Race 8
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | TSAR Closed strongly H 1.37.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 5 | 4.9 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | GREEN LUCK Closed strongly B2 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 3.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 0 | SAVAQUIN Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 7 | 4.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | HOLY HEART Closed strongly PC/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 10 | 85.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | CONQUEROR B A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 4 | 28.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | MAGNIFICENT Led early K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 1 | 4.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | FLYING QUEST B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 33.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 6 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 0 | ENJOYING Closed strongly B2/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 12 | 76.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SHINING GEM CP B Shinn · P F Yiu | B Shinn | P F Yiu | 8 | 33.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | LOBO'S LEGEND H Bentley · P O'Sullivan | H Bentley | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 73.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | SOLAR WAI WAI K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 12.0 | 9-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TSAR, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with GREEN LUCK second and SAVAQUIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite GREEN LUCK finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | GREEN LUCK | 22.9% | 4.37 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | SAVAQUIN | 16.8% | 5.94 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | MAGNIFICENT | 11.8% | 8.47 | 6 |
| 4 | 0 | TSAR | 11.1% | 9.02 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | DELIGHTFUL LAOS | 6.9% | 14.50 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | ENJOYING | 6.5% | 15.36 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | SHINING GEM | 5.2% | 19.17 | 10 |
| 8 | 0 | SOLAR WAI WAI | 4.9% | 20.37 | 12 |
| 9 | 0 | LOBO'S LEGEND | 4.6% | 21.80 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | FLYING QUEST | 4.1% | 24.53 | 7 |
| 11 | 0 | CONQUEROR | 3.5% | 28.28 | 5 |
| 12 | 0 | HOLY HEART | 1.6% | 60.78 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 49
PLACE
3 15
4 18
12 17.5
QUINELLA
3,12 55
4,12 55
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 25
3,12 42
4,12 45.5
FORECAST
12,3 136
12,4 130
TIERCE
12,3,4 353
12,4,3 362
TRIO
3,4,12 102
FIRST 4
3,4,10,12 1,544
QUARTET
12,3,4,10 10,890
12,4,3,10 11,187
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
3/3 10.5
3/4 12
3/12 187.5