Happy Valley · 2021-05-26
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREAT HARVEST, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with SHANGHAI POWER second and YEE CHEONG LUCKY third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREAT HARVEST 1.09.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 4 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | SHANGHAI POWER H-/B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 8.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 9 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | VEGA RHYTHM B/H M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 8 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | KA FORTUNE B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 6.3 | 4 |
| 7 | 6 | SUNNY SMILE B-/TT H T Mo · D E Ferraris | H T Mo | D E Ferraris | 7 | 110.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | JOY AVENUE M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 5.6 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | AFRICAN SKY B/TT2 H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | 9 | 141.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 | SMART HUNTER XB-/B T Piccone · D J Whyte | T Piccone | D J Whyte | 10 | 29.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 11 | 1 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 13.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 4 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GREAT HARVEST | 20.2% | 4.95 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 17.0% | 5.87 | 11 |
| 3 | 9 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 16.8% | 5.96 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | JOY AVENUE | 14.6% | 6.84 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | KA FORTUNE | 13.4% | 7.46 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | SHANGHAI POWER | 7.9% | 12.66 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | LUCKY VICTOR | 3.6% | 27.48 | 4 |
| 8 | 11 | VEGA RHYTHM | 3.2% | 30.82 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | AFRICAN SKY | 1.1% | 93.21 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | SUNNY SMILE | 1.1% | 93.52 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | SMART HUNTER | 1.0% | 95.84 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 29.5
PLACE
2 14
9 18.5
10 23.5
QUINELLA
2,10 124.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 33
2,10 42
9,10 71.5
FORECAST
2,10 174
TIERCE
2,10,9 827
TRIO
2,9,10 208
FIRST 4
2,9,10,12 1,157
QUARTET
2,10,9,12 15,158
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
9/2,4 156.5
9/10 165
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19.5
A2 —