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Happy Valley · 2021-05-26

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MANNA FROM HEAVEN, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with FA FA second and PEARL CHAMPION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite FA FA finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MANNA FROM HEAVEN Closed strongly XB 1.39.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 12 10.0 SH
2 2 FA FA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 2.5 SH
3 6 PEARL CHAMPION Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 11 9.7 N
4 1 PIANO SOLO Z Purton · C S Shum 2 4.9 N
5 3 GALACTIC Led early B A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 11.0 2
6 10 OFF THE REEL Closed strongly P/XB K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 9.7 2-3/4
7 9 AMAZING BOY TT R Maia · C W Chang 1 27.0 3-1/4
8 5 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly P A Badel · K W Lui 4 43.0 5
9 7 DIVINE UNICORN B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 8 23.0 5-3/4
10 4 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly B2/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris 5 9.4 5-3/4
11 11 STRONG ALLIANCE Closed strongly B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 9 118.0 6
12 8 RAGING BLAZE P/TT T Piccone · J Size 6 102.0 12

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MANNA FROM HEAVEN2. FA FA+0.1L3. PEARL CHAMPION+0.05L4. PIANO SOLO+0.05L5. GALACTIC+2L6. OFF THE REEL+2.75L7. AMAZING BOY+3.25L8. DIONYSUS COLLIN+5L9. DIVINE UNICORN+5.75L10. SUPERB DADDY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PIANO SOLO (39.2%) finished 4th — the winner MANNA FROM HEAVEN was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PIANO SOLO 39.2% 2.55 4
2 6 PEARL CHAMPION 11.1% 9.04 3
3 2 FA FA 10.3% 9.74 2
4 4 SUPERB DADDY 9.6% 10.37 10
5 10 OFF THE REEL 6.8% 14.72 6
6 12 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 6.4% 15.68 1
7 5 DIONYSUS COLLIN 4.7% 21.40 8
8 3 GALACTIC 4.3% 23.44 5
9 7 DIVINE UNICORN 3.8% 26.07 9
10 9 AMAZING BOY 1.7% 60.23 7
11 8 RAGING BLAZE 1.6% 63.60 12
12 11 STRONG ALLIANCE 0.7% 150.59 11
PIANO SOLOPEARL CHAMPIONFA FASUPERB DADDYOFF THE REELMANNA FROM HEAVEN — wonDIONYSUS COLLINGALACTICDIVINE UNICORNAMAZING BOYRAGING BLAZESTRONG ALLIANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 103.5

PLACE

2 15.5

6 23.5

12 27.5

QUINELLA

2,12 159.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 58.5

2,12 57.5

6,12 103.5

FORECAST

12,2 400

TIERCE

12,2,6 2,545

TRIO

2,6,12 302

FIRST 4

1,2,6,12 188

QUARTET

12,2,6,1 6,859

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4/2,6,12 37,790

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 33

4TH DOUBLE

1/2 89

1/12 1,716.5