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Happy Valley · 2021-05-26

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN Closed strongly XB 1.39.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K L Man 12 10.0 SH
2 0 FA FA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 7 2.5 SH
3 0 PEARL CHAMPION Closed strongly J Moreira · C H Yip 11 9.7 N
4 0 PIANO SOLO Z Purton · C S Shum 2 4.9 N
5 0 GALACTIC Led early B A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 11.0 2
6 0 OFF THE REEL Closed strongly P/XB K Teetan · P F Yiu 3 9.7 2-3/4
7 0 AMAZING BOY TT R Maia · C W Chang 1 27.0 3-1/4
8 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly P A Badel · K W Lui 4 43.0 5
9 0 DIVINE UNICORN B/TT M F Poon · W Y So 8 23.0 5-3/4
10 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly B2/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris 5 9.4 5-3/4
11 0 STRONG ALLIANCE Closed strongly B1 H N Wong · K H Ting 9 118.0 6
12 0 RAGING BLAZE P/TT T Piccone · J Size 6 102.0 12

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-05-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MANNA FROM HEAVEN, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with FA FA second and PEARL CHAMPION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite FA FA finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MANNA FROM HEAVEN—2. FA FA+0.1L3. PEARL CHAMPION+0.05L4. PIANO SOLO+0.05L5. GALACTIC+2L6. OFF THE REEL+2.75L7. AMAZING BOY+3.25L8. DIONYSUS COLLIN+5L9. DIVINE UNICORN+5.75L10. SUPERB DADDY+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick PIANO SOLO (39.2%) finished 4th — the winner MANNA FROM HEAVEN was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PIANO SOLO 39.2% 2.55 4
2 0 PEARL CHAMPION 11.1% 9.04 3
3 0 FA FA 10.3% 9.74 2
4 0 SUPERB DADDY 9.6% 10.37 10
5 0 OFF THE REEL 6.8% 14.72 6
6 0 MANNA FROM HEAVEN 6.4% 15.68 1
7 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN 4.7% 21.40 8
8 0 GALACTIC 4.3% 23.44 5
9 0 DIVINE UNICORN 3.8% 26.07 9
10 0 AMAZING BOY 1.7% 60.23 7
11 0 RAGING BLAZE 1.6% 63.60 12
12 0 STRONG ALLIANCE 0.7% 150.59 11
PIANO SOLOPEARL CHAMPIONFA FASUPERB DADDYOFF THE REELMANNA FROM HEAVEN — wonDIONYSUS COLLINGALACTICDIVINE UNICORNAMAZING BOYRAGING BLAZESTRONG ALLIANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 103.5

PLACE

2 15.5

6 23.5

12 27.5

QUINELLA

2,12 159.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 58.5

2,12 57.5

6,12 103.5

FORECAST

12,2 400

TIERCE

12,2,6 2,545

TRIO

2,6,12 302

FIRST 4

1,2,6,12 188

QUARTET

12,2,6,1 6,859

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,4/2,6,12 37,790

3 PICK 1

A2 33

A1 —

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

1/2 89

1/12 1,716.5