Happy Valley · 2021-07-07
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | SURE WIN WIN Closed strongly V 1.40.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 4.6 | N |
| 2 | 0 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 4 | 36.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | JIMMU Closed strongly SR J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 3 | 4.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly V-/B2 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG B- R Maia · C W Chang | R Maia | C W Chang | 6 | 22.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR Closed strongly E/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 11 | 20.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS B H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 5 | 53.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | RUN RUN GOOD Led early B- N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 10 | 48.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR Closed strongly E/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 9 | 17.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | TOP SCORE B-/XB1/TT T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 7 | 61.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 8 | 5.0 | 37-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SURE WIN WIN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with GO BALLISTIC second and JIMMU third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite APOLAR WARRIOR finished 4th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | JIMMU | 28.1% | 3.56 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | SURE WIN WIN | 24.7% | 4.05 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | LUCKY MISSILE | 11.8% | 8.50 | 12 |
| 4 | 0 | DIAMOND STAR | 9.8% | 10.25 | 6 |
| 5 | 0 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 6.7% | 14.90 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | RUN RUN GOOD | 4.4% | 22.90 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | CAN'T TOUCH THIS | 3.5% | 28.22 | 8 |
| 8 | 0 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 3.0% | 33.01 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | HAPPY HOUR | 2.6% | 37.80 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 2.4% | 41.11 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | GO BALLISTIC | 2.1% | 48.03 | 2 |
| 12 | 0 | TOP SCORE | 0.9% | 112.30 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 46.5
PLACE
2 16.5
4 16.5
8 85.5
QUINELLA
2,8 978
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 41.5
2,8 236
4,8 255.5
FORECAST
2,8 1,411
TIERCE
2,8,4 7,104
TRIO
2,4,8 1,176
FIRST 4
2,4,7,8 723
QUARTET
2,8,4,7 18,983
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 23
A3 —
A2 —