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Happy Valley · 2021-07-07

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with HARMONY SPIRIT second and TOTAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.38.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT Closed strongly V/TT 1.38.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 1 3.4 2-1/2
2 5 HARMONY SPIRIT Closed strongly CP/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 4 17.0 2-1/2
3 12 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall 3 8.3 2-1/2
4 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS C Wong · Y S Tsui 8 8.3 3-1/2
5 3 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B N Callan · A T Millard 5 11.0 3-1/2
6 9 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 12 7.5 4-3/4
7 4 WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size 11 6.2 5
8 11 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly B/XB K C Leung · W Y So 9 31.0 5-1/2
9 8 SPLENDID LIVING H Bentley · P F Yiu 6 33.0 5-3/4
10 7 LIFELINE VISION B Shinn · D A Hayes 10 24.0 6
11 2 THE HULK A Hamelin · C Fownes 2 15.0 6-1/4
12 10 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B2 K H Chan · K L Man 7 12.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT2. HARMONY SPIRIT+2.5L3. TOTAL POWER+2.5L4. TELECOM FIGHTERS+3.5L5. GIFT OF LIFELINE+3.5L6. KA YING EXCELLENT+4.75L7. WEALTHY DELIGHT+5L8. BRIGHT KID+5.5L9. SPLENDID LIVING+5.75L10. LIFELINE VISION+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S DELIGHT (21.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 21.0% 4.77 1
2 12 TOTAL POWER 15.7% 6.38 3
3 5 HARMONY SPIRIT 12.7% 7.88 2
4 1 TELECOM FIGHTERS 10.9% 9.16 4
5 4 WEALTHY DELIGHT 8.5% 11.81 7
6 9 KA YING EXCELLENT 7.8% 12.79 6
7 2 THE HULK 6.6% 15.04 11
8 3 GIFT OF LIFELINE 5.8% 17.18 5
9 7 LIFELINE VISION 4.0% 24.77 10
10 10 STAR OF YUEN LONG 3.2% 30.83 12
11 11 BRIGHT KID 1.9% 52.36 8
12 8 SPLENDID LIVING 1.8% 54.51 9
EVERYONE'S DELIGHT — wonTOTAL POWERHARMONY SPIRITTELECOM FIGHTERSWEALTHY DELIGHTKA YING EXCELLENTTHE HULKGIFT OF LIFELINELIFELINE VISIONSTAR OF YUEN LONGBRIGHT KIDSPLENDID LIVING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 34.5

PLACE

5 44

6 15

12 30

QUINELLA

5,6 339.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 116.5

5,12 208.5

6,12 59.5

FORECAST

6,5 708

TIERCE

6,5,12 3,510

TRIO

5,6,12 806

FIRST 4

1,5,6,12 1,115

QUARTET

6,5,12,1 23,740

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 24.5

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

8,11,12/5,6,12 3,160,991

8TH DOUBLE

8/5 254.5

8/6 530

SIX UP

2,6/4,11/1,7/8,9/8,12/5,6 214,468

6/11/7/9/8/6 2,916,773

4 [C L Chau]

TREBLE

9/8/5 3,571

9/8/6 8,715