Happy Valley · 2021-07-07
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FIRE BALL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with AURORA PEGASUS second and RED BRICK FIGHTER third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FIRE BALL TT 1.09.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 2.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 7 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | CHIRON TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 2 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | MUDITA V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 49.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | NOIR RIDER C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 4.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE TT1 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 10 | 37.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | HARDLY SWEARS C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 11 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | WAH MAY LUCK B/H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 1 | 91.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 12 | 17.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | COSMO CLASSIC CP- H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 4 | 236.0 | 23-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FIRE BALL | 35.6% | 2.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS | 14.7% | 6.79 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | NOIR RIDER | 13.6% | 7.36 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | CHIRON | 9.2% | 10.93 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 6.1% | 16.45 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND | 5.8% | 17.10 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 5.1% | 19.73 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | HARDLY SWEARS | 4.4% | 22.72 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 2.6% | 38.08 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | MUDITA | 1.7% | 60.25 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | WAH MAY LUCK | 0.7% | 139.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | COSMO CLASSIC | 0.5% | 191.64 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 23.5
PLACE
1 28
7 26.5
8 12.5
QUINELLA
1,8 117
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 109
1,8 43
7,8 42
FORECAST
8,1 156
TIERCE
8,1,7 636
TRIO
1,7,8 196
FIRST 4
1,7,8,11 340
QUARTET
8,1,7,11 4,113
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
9,10/1 54
9,10/8 89.5
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A2 —
A3 —