Happy Valley · 2021-07-07
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY FLUKE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with THE RUNNER second and CLASSIC POSH third. The 4.4 favourite COMPASSION SPIRIT finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIMPLY FLUKE B/XB 1.09.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | THE RUNNER K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 12 | 15.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 7 | 8.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | MAJESTIC STAR A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | HARMONY N HOME K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 6 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 8 | 23.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | WINE AND WINE TT K H Chan · T P Yung | K H Chan | T P Yung | 2 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 3 | 4.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | ELIGERE B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 7.5 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | SUPER DOBBIN B B Shinn · A T Millard | B Shinn | A T Millard | 1 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 12 | AMAZING NEWS H1/B2/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 1 | EQUALETTA BLITZ B/H Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 9 | 6.4 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EQUALETTA BLITZ | 13.9% | 7.22 | 12 |
| 2 | 3 | MAJESTIC STAR | 11.7% | 8.56 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | SUPER DOBBIN | 11.6% | 8.59 | 10 |
| 4 | 10 | ELIGERE | 8.6% | 11.62 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | CLASSIC POSH | 8.1% | 12.28 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | HARMONY N HOME | 7.8% | 12.89 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | AMAZING NEWS | 7.6% | 13.23 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 6.7% | 14.89 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 6.7% | 15.01 | 1 |
| 10 | 2 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 6.5% | 15.30 | 6 |
| 11 | 8 | THE RUNNER | 5.6% | 17.76 | 2 |
| 12 | 4 | WINE AND WINE | 5.2% | 19.20 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 108
PLACE
7 26
8 41.5
9 32.5
QUINELLA
8,9 763
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 220.5
7,9 110
8,9 230.5
FORECAST
9,8 912
TIERCE
9,8,7 7,129
TRIO
7,8,9 1,474
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 3,319
QUARTET
9,8,7,3 84,053
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,7,9/7,8,9 814,160
3 PICK 1
A1 40
A2 —
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/8 814
7/9 2,526.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,4,11/1,7,9/Any Combination 28,406