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Happy Valley · 2021-07-07

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RAINBOW LIGHT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with NOTHING NEW second and SAVVY KINGMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SAVVY KINGMAN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP/SR/XB/TT 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 7.6 1/2
2 2 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly XB T Piccone · C W Chang 10 21.0 1/2
3 4 SAVVY KINGMAN J Moreira · F C Lor 3 2.4 1
4 1 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 5 11.0 1-3/4
4 11 LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B V Borges · K H Ting 1 45.0 1-3/4
6 5 BULLETPROOF TT R Maia · P F Yiu 11 17.0 2-3/4
7 8 ALL YOU KNOW CP/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 2 8.5 3-3/4
8 9 OWNERS' STAR CP H Bentley · C S Shum 8 18.0 3-3/4
9 7 PLAY WISE B K Teetan · C H Yip 4 8.8 4-3/4
10 12 MISTER ARM Led early H-/P- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 13.0 4-3/4
11 10 PRIME STAR B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 12 118.0 5-1/4
12 3 TANGMERE TT B Shinn · C Fownes 6 12.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RAINBOW LIGHT2. NOTHING NEW+0.5L3. SAVVY KINGMAN+1L4. DREAM WARRIORS+1.75L4. LUCKY DIAMOND+1.75L6. BULLETPROOF+2.75L7. ALL YOU KNOW+3.75L8. OWNERS' STAR+3.75L9. PLAY WISE+4.75L10. MISTER ARM+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (42.0%) finished 3rd — the winner RAINBOW LIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SAVVY KINGMAN 42.0% 2.38 3
2 6 RAINBOW LIGHT 17.6% 5.67 1
3 8 ALL YOU KNOW 9.1% 10.96 7
4 1 DREAM WARRIORS 7.7% 12.96 4
5 5 BULLETPROOF 4.8% 21.04 6
6 7 PLAY WISE 3.6% 28.00 9
7 9 OWNERS' STAR 3.5% 28.45 8
8 3 TANGMERE 3.5% 28.89 12
9 2 NOTHING NEW 2.7% 37.25 2
10 12 MISTER ARM 2.5% 40.59 10
11 11 LUCKY DIAMOND 2.0% 49.40 4
12 10 PRIME STAR 1.1% 92.76 11
SAVVY KINGMANRAINBOW LIGHT — wonALL YOU KNOWDREAM WARRIORSBULLETPROOFPLAY WISEOWNERS' STARTANGMERENOTHING NEWMISTER ARMLUCKY DIAMONDPRIME STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 76.5

PLACE

2 66

4 13

6 20

QUINELLA

2,6 933

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 113

2,6 282

4,6 30

FORECAST

6,2 1,950

TIERCE

6,2,4 5,227

TRIO

2,4,6 654

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 475

2,4,6,11 1,975

QUARTET

6,2,4,1 16,021

6,2,4,11 52,476

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 30

A1

3RD DOUBLE

8/2 110.5

8/6 124.5