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Happy Valley · 2021-07-07

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly CP/SR/XB/TT 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 7.6 1/2
2 0 NOTHING NEW Closed strongly XB T Piccone · C W Chang 10 21.0 1/2
3 0 SAVVY KINGMAN J Moreira · F C Lor 3 2.4 1
4 0 LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B V Borges · K H Ting 1 45.0 1-3/4
4 0 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 5 11.0 1-3/4
6 0 BULLETPROOF TT R Maia · P F Yiu 11 17.0 2-3/4
7 0 ALL YOU KNOW CP/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 2 8.5 3-3/4
8 0 OWNERS' STAR CP H Bentley · C S Shum 8 18.0 3-3/4
9 0 PLAY WISE B K Teetan · C H Yip 4 8.8 4-3/4
10 0 MISTER ARM Led early H-/P- H N Wong · Y S Tsui 9 13.0 4-3/4
11 0 PRIME STAR B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 12 118.0 5-1/4
12 0 TANGMERE TT B Shinn · C Fownes 6 12.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-07-07 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RAINBOW LIGHT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with NOTHING NEW second and SAVVY KINGMAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SAVVY KINGMAN finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RAINBOW LIGHT—2. NOTHING NEW+0.5L3. SAVVY KINGMAN+1L4. LUCKY DIAMOND+1.75L4. DREAM WARRIORS+1.75L6. BULLETPROOF+2.75L7. ALL YOU KNOW+3.75L8. OWNERS' STAR+3.75L9. PLAY WISE+4.75L10. MISTER ARM+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (42.0%) finished 3rd — the winner RAINBOW LIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SAVVY KINGMAN 42.0% 2.38 3
2 0 RAINBOW LIGHT 17.6% 5.67 1
3 0 ALL YOU KNOW 9.1% 10.96 7
4 0 DREAM WARRIORS 7.7% 12.96 4
5 0 BULLETPROOF 4.8% 21.04 6
6 0 PLAY WISE 3.6% 28.00 9
7 0 OWNERS' STAR 3.5% 28.45 8
8 0 TANGMERE 3.5% 28.89 12
9 0 NOTHING NEW 2.7% 37.25 2
10 0 MISTER ARM 2.5% 40.59 10
11 0 LUCKY DIAMOND 2.0% 49.40 4
12 0 PRIME STAR 1.1% 92.76 11
SAVVY KINGMANRAINBOW LIGHT — wonALL YOU KNOWDREAM WARRIORSBULLETPROOFPLAY WISEOWNERS' STARTANGMERENOTHING NEWMISTER ARMLUCKY DIAMONDPRIME STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 76.5

PLACE

2 66

4 13

6 20

QUINELLA

2,6 933

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 113

2,6 282

4,6 30

FORECAST

6,2 1,950

TIERCE

6,2,4 5,227

TRIO

2,4,6 654

FIRST 4

1,2,4,6 475

2,4,6,11 1,975

QUARTET

6,2,4,1 16,021

6,2,4,11 52,476

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 30

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

8/2 110.5

8/6 124.5