跑馬地 · 2021-07-07
第 3場
2021-07-07跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C H Yip訓練的FIRE BALL勝出，贏出1-3/4。AURORA PEGASUS獲得亞軍；RED BRICK FIGHTER獲得季軍。頭馬以2.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FIRE BALL TT 1.09.75 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 5 | 2.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 7 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | CHIRON TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 2 | 9.3 | 2 |
| 5 | 12 | MUDITA V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 49.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | NOIR RIDER C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 3 | 4.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 24.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE TT1 N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 10 | 37.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 4 | HARDLY SWEARS C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 11 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | WAH MAY LUCK B/H/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 1 | 91.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 12 | 17.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | COSMO CLASSIC CP- H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 4 | 236.0 | 23-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FIRE BALL | 35.6% | 2.81 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS | 14.7% | 6.79 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | NOIR RIDER | 13.6% | 7.36 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | CHIRON | 9.2% | 10.93 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 6.1% | 16.45 | 3 |
| 6 | 3 | VICTORY IN HAND | 5.8% | 17.10 | 11 |
| 7 | 10 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 5.1% | 19.73 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | HARDLY SWEARS | 4.4% | 22.72 | 9 |
| 9 | 2 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 2.6% | 38.08 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | MUDITA | 1.7% | 60.25 | 5 |
| 11 | 9 | WAH MAY LUCK | 0.7% | 139.43 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | COSMO CLASSIC | 0.5% | 191.64 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 23.5
PLACE
1 28
7 26.5
8 12.5
QUINELLA
1,8 117
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 109
1,8 43
7,8 42
FORECAST
8,1 156
TIERCE
8,1,7 636
TRIO
1,7,8 196
FIRST 4
1,7,8,11 340
QUARTET
8,1,7,11 4,113
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
9,10/1 54
9,10/8 89.5
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A2 —
A3 —