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Sha Tin · 2021-07-11

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER MISSION Closed strongly CP-/TT1 1.21.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 10 3.0 1/2
2 0 HARMONY WIN WIN Led early SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 14 4.2 1/2
3 0 THE ANOMALY Closed strongly C Schofield · K H Ting 5 10.0 3/4
4 0 SWIFT SPIRIT Closed strongly R Maia · C W Chang 4 17.0 1
5 0 CITY LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 7 13.0 2
6 0 BELLA BABY Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 13 31.0 2-1/2
7 0 WINNING BREW CP C Y Ho · F C Lor 9 18.0 2-3/4
8 0 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man 8 11.0 3-3/4
9 0 AMAZEMENT B J Moreira · J Size 3 14.0 4
10 0 MELBOURNE HALL H/XB H Bentley · D J Hall 12 43.0 4-1/4
11 0 AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 6 20.0 9
12 0 FOREVER CITY B-/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 11.0 9-3/4
13 0 UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT H T Mo · K W Lui 11 81.0 11-3/4
— 0 MAXIMIZE HEART M F Poon · C H Yip — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER MISSION, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with HARMONY WIN WIN second and THE ANOMALY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER MISSION—2. HARMONY WIN WIN+0.5L3. THE ANOMALY+0.75L4. SWIFT SPIRIT+1L5. CITY LEGEND+2L6. BELLA BABY+2.5L7. WINNING BREW+2.75L8. ULTIMATE GLORY+3.75L9. AMAZEMENT+4L10. MELBOURNE HALL+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HARMONY WIN WIN (22.9%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER MISSION was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 22.9% 4.37 2
2 0 SUPER MISSION 13.3% 7.50 1
3 0 ULTIMATE GLORY 8.3% 11.98 8
4 0 CITY LEGEND 7.8% 12.89 5
5 0 UNIVERSAL GO GO 7.2% 13.96 13
6 0 THE ANOMALY 6.6% 15.05 3
7 0 AMAZEMENT 6.4% 15.67 9
8 0 BELLA BABY 5.5% 18.05 6
9 0 AMBITIOUS HEART 5.3% 18.81 11
10 0 WINNING BREW 5.1% 19.45 7
11 0 MELBOURNE HALL 4.1% 24.37 10
12 0 FOREVER CITY 4.0% 25.30 12
13 0 SWIFT SPIRIT 3.5% 28.94 4
HARMONY WIN WINSUPER MISSION — wonULTIMATE GLORYCITY LEGENDUNIVERSAL GO GOTHE ANOMALYAMAZEMENTBELLA BABYAMBITIOUS HEARTWINNING BREWMELBOURNE HALLFOREVER CITYSWIFT SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 30

PLACE

2 18

3 34.5

9 14.5

QUINELLA

2,9 66

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 86

2,9 31

3,9 64.5

FORECAST

9,2 118

TIERCE

9,2,3 773

TRIO

2,3,9 258

FIRST 4

2,3,7,9 568

QUARTET

9,2,3,7 7,980

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

11/2 93

11/9,14 404

3 PICK 1

A1 17.5

A3 —

A2 —