Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2021-07-11

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-11 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GLUCK RACER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 2-1/4, with BEAUTY AMIGO second and TOUCH FAITH third. Victory came as the 4.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 GLUCK RACER B-/V1 1.08.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting 4 4.2 2-1/4
2 2 BEAUTY AMIGO B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 12 14.0 2-1/4
3 8 TOUCH FAITH B J Moreira · J Size 14 8.4 2-1/2
4 1 MY ECSTATIC TT N Callan · F C Lor 5 7.9 2-1/2
5 14 ZACIAN B K Teetan · A T Millard 13 5.2 4
6 5 THE JOLLY XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 9 84.0 4-3/4
7 11 BULLISH BROTHER B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 1 39.0 5-1/4
8 12 WHO LOVES THE ACE B1/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 70.0 5-3/4
9 7 HEROIC CHAMPION V Borges · P O'Sullivan 8 216.0 6-1/4
10 13 TOWARDS SUCCESS H/TT H W Lai · W Y So 6 256.0 7-1/2
11 3 G ONE EXCELLENT SR1/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 3 6.8 7-3/4
12 6 WONDERFUL FANTASY C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 143.0 16
13 4 INESTIMABLE R Maia · D A Hayes 7 57.0 41-1/2
0 MEGA BONUS T Piccone · P F Yiu
10 PLIKCLONE B M F Poon · D J Hall 2 4.3

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GLUCK RACER2. BEAUTY AMIGO+2.25L3. TOUCH FAITH+2.5L4. MY ECSTATIC+2.5L5. ZACIAN+4L6. THE JOLLY+4.75L7. BULLISH BROTHER+5.25L8. WHO LOVES THE ACE+5.75L9. HEROIC CHAMPION+6.25L10. TOWARDS SUCCESS+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick TOUCH FAITH (23.2%) finished 3rd — the winner GLUCK RACER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 TOUCH FAITH 23.2% 4.31 3
2 1 MY ECSTATIC 20.9% 4.79 4
3 9 GLUCK RACER 18.8% 5.31 1
4 3 G ONE EXCELLENT 15.9% 6.28 11
5 14 ZACIAN 7.5% 13.25 5
6 12 WHO LOVES THE ACE 3.1% 32.18 8
7 2 BEAUTY AMIGO 2.9% 34.10 2
8 11 BULLISH BROTHER 2.4% 41.83 7
9 5 THE JOLLY 2.1% 46.78 6
10 4 INESTIMABLE 1.1% 90.66 13
11 6 WONDERFUL FANTASY 0.9% 107.24 12
12 13 TOWARDS SUCCESS 0.6% 153.98 10
13 7 HEROIC CHAMPION 0.4% 238.47 9
TOUCH FAITHMY ECSTATICGLUCK RACER — wonG ONE EXCELLENTZACIANWHO LOVES THE ACEBEAUTY AMIGOBULLISH BROTHERTHE JOLLYINESTIMABLEWONDERFUL FANTASYTOWARDS SUCCESSHEROIC CHAMPION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 42

PLACE

2 43.5

8 26.5

9 15.5

QUINELLA

2,9 399

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 204

2,9 133

8,9 77

FORECAST

9,2 522

TIERCE

9,2,8 4,791

TRIO

2,8,9 1,153

FIRST 4

1,2,8,9 1,048

QUARTET

9,2,8,1 20,489

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 18

A3

3RD DOUBLE

1/2 158.5

1/9 203