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Sha Tin · 2021-07-11

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-11 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JIANGXI STAMINA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by 3/4, with EVEN KEEL second and FORMULA EXCEL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite BLAZING PARTNERS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.22.01
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 JIANGXI STAMINA Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So 14 5.7 3/4
2 10 EVEN KEEL Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · A T Millard 6 6.6 3/4
3 5 FORMULA EXCEL Closed strongly TT J Moreira · C Fownes 7 6.6 1-3/4
4 13 BLAZING PARTNERS B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 1 3.9 2
5 2 LUCKY PUZZLE Closed strongly SR C Wong · Y S Tsui 11 22.0 2-1/4
6 12 RED ZOFFANY Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · K L Man 9 23.0 2-3/4
7 11 KA YING BRILLIANCE B-/XB/V2 M F Poon · T P Yung 4 17.0 3-1/4
8 8 WAYFOONG STAR SR T Piccone · D J Whyte 10 73.0 4-1/4
9 6 ONE HAPPY STAR K C Leung · C H Yip 13 20.0 5-1/2
10 4 GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly P N Callan · C W Chang 12 9.5 6-3/4
11 3 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 3 29.0 8
12 7 VIVA MAMA Led early TT H T Mo · L Ho 2 20.0 8-1/4
13 9 ARDENODE TT C L Chau · D J Hall 5 12.0 9-3/4
14 14 LUCKY TURBO B/TT H W Lai · A S Cruz 8 69.0 12
0 TOP SCORE A Hamelin · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JIANGXI STAMINA2. EVEN KEEL+0.75L3. FORMULA EXCEL+1.75L4. BLAZING PARTNERS+2L5. LUCKY PUZZLE+2.25L6. RED ZOFFANY+2.75L7. KA YING BRILLIANCE+3.25L8. WAYFOONG STAR+4.25L9. ONE HAPPY STAR+5.5L10. GOLDEN FOUR+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FORMULA EXCEL (17.0%) finished 3rd — the winner JIANGXI STAMINA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 FORMULA EXCEL 17.0% 5.87 3
2 13 BLAZING PARTNERS 14.9% 6.73 4
3 1 JIANGXI STAMINA 13.7% 7.28 1
4 7 VIVA MAMA 11.8% 8.46 12
5 9 ARDENODE 9.2% 10.86 13
6 11 KA YING BRILLIANCE 5.9% 17.00 7
7 10 EVEN KEEL 5.9% 17.04 2
8 4 GOLDEN FOUR 5.3% 18.97 10
9 3 NOBLE MAN 4.7% 21.20 11
10 2 LUCKY PUZZLE 3.9% 25.96 5
11 8 WAYFOONG STAR 2.2% 45.01 8
12 6 ONE HAPPY STAR 2.1% 47.98 9
13 12 RED ZOFFANY 1.8% 56.93 6
14 14 LUCKY TURBO 1.7% 59.65 14
FORMULA EXCELBLAZING PARTNERSJIANGXI STAMINA — wonVIVA MAMAARDENODEKA YING BRILLIANCEEVEN KEELGOLDEN FOURNOBLE MANLUCKY PUZZLEWAYFOONG STARONE HAPPY STARRED ZOFFANYLUCKY TURBO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 57.5

PLACE

1 21

5 21.5

10 23.5

QUINELLA

1,10 214

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 76

1,10 76.5

5,10 93

FORECAST

1,10 534

TIERCE

1,10,5 3,196

TRIO

1,5,10 545

FIRST 4

1,5,10,13 428

QUARTET

1,10,5,13 12,858

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

9,14/1 129.5

9,14/10 58

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 23.5