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Sha Tin · 2021-07-11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-11 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREEN ENVY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with GRACYLOVE second and ZONE D third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite GRACYLOVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 GREEN ENVY Closed strongly V/TT 1.21.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes 6 7.6 N
2 3 GRACYLOVE Closed strongly C Schofield · D J Hall 1 2.8 N
3 4 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT B Shinn · J Size 2 7.3 1-1/4
4 2 LOYAL BABY K Teetan · F C Lor 5 8.4 2
5 11 BRILLIANT CHINA Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · T P Yung 8 8.0 2
6 14 TELECOM ELITE Closed strongly PC-/H1 C Wong · Y S Tsui 10 157.0 2
7 6 TOYCOON SR1 N Callan · P F Yiu 3 10.0 3
8 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 9 30.0 4-1/4
9 9 CORDYCEPS TWO K C Leung · K L Man 7 102.0 5-1/4
10 10 SOLAR POWER Led early XB- H Bentley · C H Yip 12 11.0 5-1/4
11 5 DIVINE REGULUS TT A Hamelin · W Y So 11 38.0 6
12 13 EASY FORTUNE Closed strongly CP V Borges · K H Ting 14 170.0 6-1/4
13 12 CASA KINGDOM XB C Y Ho · D A Hayes 4 37.0 8-1/4
14 8 HEARTY WISH SR1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 17.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREEN ENVY2. GRACYLOVE+0.05L3. ZONE D+1.25L4. LOYAL BABY+2L5. BRILLIANT CHINA+2L6. TELECOM ELITE+2L7. TOYCOON+3L8. BEAUTY SPIRIT+4.25L9. CORDYCEPS TWO+5.25L10. SOLAR POWER+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick GRACYLOVE (27.4%) finished 2nd — the winner GREEN ENVY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 GRACYLOVE 27.4% 3.65 2
2 7 GREEN ENVY 16.2% 6.19 1
3 4 ZONE D 13.7% 7.30 3
4 2 LOYAL BABY 9.0% 11.09 4
5 11 BRILLIANT CHINA 8.3% 12.04 5
6 6 TOYCOON 6.9% 14.41 7
7 8 HEARTY WISH 5.5% 18.28 14
8 5 DIVINE REGULUS 3.4% 29.43 11
9 10 SOLAR POWER 2.7% 37.41 10
10 12 CASA KINGDOM 2.4% 42.41 13
11 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT 1.6% 61.04 8
12 13 EASY FORTUNE 1.2% 84.21 12
13 14 TELECOM ELITE 1.1% 95.02 6
14 9 CORDYCEPS TWO 0.7% 149.43 9
GRACYLOVEGREEN ENVY — wonZONE DLOYAL BABYBRILLIANT CHINATOYCOONHEARTY WISHDIVINE REGULUSSOLAR POWERCASA KINGDOMBEAUTY SPIRITEASY FORTUNETELECOM ELITECORDYCEPS TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 76

PLACE

3 13.5

4 23

7 22

QUINELLA

3,7 126.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 40.5

3,7 45

4,7 91

FORECAST

7,3 319

TIERCE

7,3,4 1,264

TRIO

3,4,7 221

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 322

QUARTET

7,3,4,2 9,434

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 26

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 10.5

4/7 242.5