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Sha Tin · 2021-07-11

Race 8

Class 1 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course A 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2021-07-11 was Class 1 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRECIOUSSHIP, ridden by H Bentley and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1/2, with CHAMPION'S WAY second and THE ROCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite LUCKY EXPRESS finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.32.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB- 1.32.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · P F Yiu 3 12.0 1/2
2 1 CHAMPION'S WAY Closed strongly P/TT K Teetan · J Size 6 12.0 1/2
3 9 THE ROCK Led early T Piccone · C Fownes 1 7.7 1-1/4
4 8 BEAUTY SMILE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz 11 17.0 1-1/4
5 3 FAST MOST FURIOUS Closed strongly C Y Ho · D J Hall 2 11.0 3
6 2 RATTAN Closed strongly C L Chau · R Gibson 8 18.0 3-3/4
7 6 LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly E/TT J Moreira · J Size 5 2.2 4
8 4 RELIABLE TEAM V-/B2 K C Leung · F C Lor 10 14.0 4
9 7 TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT R Maia · C S Shum 7 7.5 4-1/2
10 11 CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 9 120.0 4-3/4
11 5 GREEN LUCK B N Callan · C Fownes 4 18.0 5-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECIOUSSHIP2. CHAMPION'S WAY+0.5L3. THE ROCK+1.25L4. BEAUTY SMILE+1.25L5. FAST MOST FURIOUS+3L6. RATTAN+3.75L7. LUCKY EXPRESS+4L8. RELIABLE TEAM+4L9. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+4.5L10. CIRCUIT THREE+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick LUCKY EXPRESS (27.5%) finished 7th — the winner PRECIOUSSHIP was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 LUCKY EXPRESS 27.5% 3.63 7
2 9 THE ROCK 11.5% 8.71 3
3 5 GREEN LUCK 11.4% 8.81 11
4 7 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 10.7% 9.31 9
5 1 CHAMPION'S WAY 8.7% 11.53 2
6 8 BEAUTY SMILE 7.7% 12.93 4
7 2 RATTAN 5.9% 17.04 6
8 3 FAST MOST FURIOUS 5.2% 19.31 5
9 4 RELIABLE TEAM 4.5% 22.24 8
10 11 CIRCUIT THREE 3.5% 28.63 10
11 10 PRECIOUSSHIP 3.4% 29.10 1
LUCKY EXPRESSTHE ROCKGREEN LUCKTOURBILLON DIAMONDCHAMPION'S WAYBEAUTY SMILERATTANFAST MOST FURIOUSRELIABLE TEAMCIRCUIT THREEPRECIOUSSHIP — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 129

PLACE

1 26

9 21

10 37.5

QUINELLA

1,10 888

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 120.5

1,10 216

9,10 156

FORECAST

10,1 2,249

TIERCE

10,1,9 16,671

TRIO

1,9,10 1,657

FIRST 4

1,8,9,10 7,667

QUARTET

10,1,9,8 190,023

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,9/1,9,10 216,764

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 24.5

7TH DOUBLE

9/1 91.5

9/10 1,180.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2

B3

B4 24

B1