Happy Valley · 2021-09-15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY DIAMOND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K H Ting, won by NOSE, with FAST PACE second and FAITHFUL TRINITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FAST PACE finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B 1.39.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 1 | 10.0 | NOSE |
| 2 | 4 | FAST PACE H Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 9 | 3.2 | NOSE |
| 3 | 8 | FAITHFUL TRINITY Led early H/TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 7 | 25.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 6 | 5.5 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 2 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | RED IMPACT C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 5 | 4.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B2/TT K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 21.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | SEAWEED FORTUNE V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.7 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 43.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 5 | ROYAL RACER L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FAST PACE | 25.7% | 3.90 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | RED IMPACT | 17.4% | 5.74 | 6 |
| 3 | 3 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 13.3% | 7.54 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | V CHEVALIERS | 12.7% | 7.84 | 4 |
| 5 | 6 | VICTORIOUS SEEKER | 12.2% | 8.17 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 8.5% | 11.78 | 1 |
| 7 | 1 | JOLLY HONOUR | 6.3% | 15.93 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | FLASH FAMOUS | 2.5% | 40.14 | 7 |
| 9 | 8 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 1.4% | 71.43 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 103
PLACE
4 13
8 61
10 25.5
QUINELLA
4,10 159
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 140.5
4,10 52.5
8,10 267
FORECAST
10,4 504
TIERCE
10,4,8 6,569
TRIO
4,8,10 1,027
FIRST 4
2,4,8,10 850
QUARTET
10,4,8,2 22,080
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
8/4 107.5
8/10 910
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 42
A2 —