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Happy Valley · 2021-09-15

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LUCKY DIAMOND Closed strongly B 1.39.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K H Ting 1 10.0 NOSE
2 0 FAST PACE H Z Purton · C Fownes 9 3.2 NOSE
3 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY Led early H/TT V Borges · W Y So 7 25.0 N
4 0 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT J Moreira · K L Man 6 5.5 1/2
5 0 JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · Y S Tsui 2 14.0 2-1/4
6 0 RED IMPACT C Schofield · D A Hayes 5 4.2 2-1/2
7 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B2/TT K C Leung · C H Yip 8 21.0 3-1/4
8 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE V/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 4.7 6-1/2
9 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 3 43.0 7-1/2
— 0 ROYAL RACER L Ferraris · C Fownes — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY DIAMOND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K H Ting, won by NOSE, with FAST PACE second and FAITHFUL TRINITY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite FAST PACE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY DIAMOND—2. FAST PACE+0.05L3. FAITHFUL TRINITY+0.05L4. V CHEVALIERS+0.5L5. JOLLY HONOUR+2.25L6. RED IMPACT+2.5L7. FLASH FAMOUS+3.25L8. SEAWEED FORTUNE+6.5L9. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FAST PACE (25.7%) finished 2nd — the winner LUCKY DIAMOND was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FAST PACE 25.7% 3.90 2
2 0 RED IMPACT 17.4% 5.74 6
3 0 SEAWEED FORTUNE 13.3% 7.54 8
4 0 V CHEVALIERS 12.7% 7.84 4
5 0 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 12.2% 8.17 9
6 0 LUCKY DIAMOND 8.5% 11.78 1
7 0 JOLLY HONOUR 6.3% 15.93 5
8 0 FLASH FAMOUS 2.5% 40.14 7
9 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 1.4% 71.43 3
FAST PACERED IMPACTSEAWEED FORTUNEV CHEVALIERSVICTORIOUS SEEKERLUCKY DIAMOND — wonJOLLY HONOURFLASH FAMOUSFAITHFUL TRINITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 103

PLACE

4 13

8 61

10 25.5

QUINELLA

4,10 159

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 140.5

4,10 52.5

8,10 267

FORECAST

10,4 504

TIERCE

10,4,8 6,569

TRIO

4,8,10 1,027

FIRST 4

2,4,8,10 850

QUARTET

10,4,8,2 22,080

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/4 107.5

8/10 910

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 42