Happy Valley · 2021-09-15
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SPICY GRILL, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with VIVA MAMA second and SUNNY AND GOLD third. Victory came as the 4.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SPICY GRILL B/TT 1.09.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 4.3 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | VIVA MAMA TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 6 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 3 | 4 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 7.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 7 | ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 5 | 8.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | WHO LOVES THE ACE B-/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 9 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD B2/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 7 | 13.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | XIANG LAN QI B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 10 | 14.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | MISTER ARM H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 4.3 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | SUNNY SMILE TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 12 | 141.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 8 | 10.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | SMILING FACE B L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 3 | 19.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | TIGERLAD B/TT M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 11 | 46.0 | 20 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 17.5% | 5.71 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | SPICY GRILL | 15.7% | 6.37 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | ALLOY KING | 14.4% | 6.97 | 4 |
| 4 | 6 | VIVA MAMA | 10.0% | 10.03 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | XIANG LAN QI | 8.8% | 11.33 | 7 |
| 6 | 1 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 7.6% | 13.19 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | SMILING FACE | 7.3% | 13.66 | 11 |
| 8 | 3 | PAKISTAN ZINDABAD | 4.7% | 21.19 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | TIGERLAD | 4.5% | 22.15 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 4.4% | 22.91 | 10 |
| 11 | 2 | MISTER ARM | 4.3% | 23.31 | 8 |
| 12 | 10 | SUNNY SMILE | 0.8% | 118.39 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 43
PLACE
4 27.5
5 17
6 24
QUINELLA
5,6 181.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 62
4,6 115.5
5,6 68.5
FORECAST
5,6 293
TIERCE
5,6,4 1,820
TRIO
4,5,6 307
FIRST 4
4,5,6,7 402
QUARTET
5,6,4,7 7,305
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
10/5 494
10/6 150.5
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 33
A3 —