Happy Valley · 2021-09-15
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CLASSIC POSH, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with COLONEL second and STOICISM third. The 3.7 favourite MIG ENERGY finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH 1.09.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | COLONEL V V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 3 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 8 | STOICISM L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 2 | 8.4 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 5 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SIMPLY FLUKE B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 4 | 7.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | EXUBERANT B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 7 | 4.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP/XB M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 9 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | MIG ENERGY XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 6 | 3.7 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | A LA KING B C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 8 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | LINCOLN BRIGHT H/XB/TT K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 1 | 141.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 5 | BRIGHT KID B/XB H N Wong · W Y So | H N Wong | W Y So | 11 | 92.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | SICOMORO P1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 10 | 137.0 | 4-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MIG ENERGY | 16.8% | 5.96 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 16.0% | 6.26 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | EXUBERANT | 13.8% | 7.27 | 6 |
| 4 | 8 | STOICISM | 11.8% | 8.45 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH | 10.8% | 9.30 | 1 |
| 6 | 9 | COLONEL | 10.0% | 10.01 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | A LA KING | 6.9% | 14.49 | 9 |
| 8 | 11 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 5.8% | 17.30 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 4.7% | 21.32 | 7 |
| 10 | 5 | BRIGHT KID | 2.3% | 43.93 | 11 |
| 11 | 3 | SICOMORO | 0.7% | 139.89 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | LINCOLN BRIGHT | 0.6% | 177.70 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 139.5
PLACE
2 43
8 27
9 28
QUINELLA
2,9 649
QUINELLA PLACE
2,8 226.5
2,9 211.5
8,9 114.5
FORECAST
2,9 2,151
TIERCE
2,9,8 14,902
TRIO
2,8,9 2,343
FIRST 4
2,8,9,11 4,066
QUARTET
2,9,8,11 120,481
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 27
A2 —
A1 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/2 266.5
9/9 26.5