Happy Valley · 2021-09-15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREAT HARVEST, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 3/4, with STORMTROUPER second and HAPPY GATHERING third. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GREAT HARVEST 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 3 | 3.8 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 7 | STORMTROUPER XB2 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 4 | 3.8 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING B M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 2 | 8.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | PLIKCLONE B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 8 | 9.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | WHAT A LEGEND B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 10 | 23.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | MOONLUCK CP-/B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | LORIZ B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 9 | 11.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | ROYAL AGILITY CP1/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 215.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 7 | 42.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 6 | WITTY SCHOLAR R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 1 | 30.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | SPICY SO GOOD B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 12 | 8.9 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | STORMTROUPER | 22.5% | 4.44 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | GREAT HARVEST | 12.7% | 7.90 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | SPICY SO GOOD | 11.5% | 8.68 | 12 |
| 4 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT | 11.2% | 8.95 | 4 |
| 5 | 5 | LORIZ | 8.1% | 12.37 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | HAPPY GATHERING | 7.8% | 12.82 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | PLIKCLONE | 7.8% | 12.88 | 5 |
| 8 | 8 | MOONLUCK | 6.8% | 14.64 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | WHAT A LEGEND | 5.7% | 17.56 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 2.7% | 37.04 | 10 |
| 11 | 6 | WITTY SCHOLAR | 2.4% | 40.90 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | ROYAL AGILITY | 0.8% | 125.73 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 38.5
PLACE
7 16.5
10 15
12 27.5
QUINELLA
7,10 92.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,10 34
7,12 80.5
10,12 54.5
FORECAST
10,7 171
TIERCE
10,7,12 1,155
TRIO
7,10,12 231
FIRST 4
3,7,10,12 492
QUARTET
10,7,12,3 8,383
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A3 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
10/7 89
10/10 455