Happy Valley · 2021-09-15
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY AND RICH, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2, with HANDSOME BO BO second and GOLDEN DASH third. The 3.9 favourite SIGHT SUCCESS finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HARMONY AND RICH 1.08.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 7 | 21.0 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 9 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 5 | GOLDEN DASH B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 8 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SIGHT SUCCESS E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 3.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | SHINING GEM CP K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 1 | 5.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | AMAZING ONE PLUS XB/P1/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung | A Hamelin | T P Yung | 12 | 64.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | LOVING A BOOM TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 5 | 5.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | IGNITING B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 4.5 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | MAN STAR V L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 3 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | SCORES OF FUN TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 6 | 29.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 15.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | DECRYPT XB- M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 4 | 19.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | IGNITING | 24.7% | 4.05 | 8 |
| 2 | 12 | SIGHT SUCCESS | 23.6% | 4.24 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | LOVING A BOOM | 11.4% | 8.79 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | MAN STAR | 7.3% | 13.78 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | SHINING GEM | 6.7% | 14.94 | 5 |
| 6 | 1 | GRATEFUL HEART | 6.4% | 15.53 | 11 |
| 7 | 4 | HARMONY AND RICH | 5.3% | 18.94 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | DECRYPT | 3.4% | 29.55 | 12 |
| 9 | 2 | HANDSOME BO BO | 3.3% | 30.06 | 2 |
| 10 | 5 | GOLDEN DASH | 2.9% | 34.67 | 3 |
| 11 | 9 | AMAZING ONE PLUS | 2.6% | 39.01 | 6 |
| 12 | 7 | SCORES OF FUN | 2.5% | 39.79 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 210
PLACE
2 30.5
4 58
5 59
QUINELLA
2,4 1,100
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 303
2,5 280.5
4,5 608
FORECAST
4,2 2,054
TIERCE
4,2,5 32,288
TRIO
2,4,5 7,603
FIRST 4
2,4,5,12 9,035
QUARTET
4,2,5,12 256,277
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 31.5
A2 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,9/2,4,5 1,118,242
7TH DOUBLE
2/2 384.5
2/4 3,518
SIX UP
5,6/3,10/7,10/9,10/2,9/2,4 18,717
5/10/10/9/2/4 2,474,763
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/2/2 913
9/2/4 6,359