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Happy Valley · 2021-09-15

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-09-15 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HARMONY AND RICH, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2, with HANDSOME BO BO second and GOLDEN DASH third. The 3.9 favourite SIGHT SUCCESS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HARMONY AND RICH 1.08.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 7 21.0 2
2 2 HANDSOME BO BO TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 10.0 2
3 5 GOLDEN DASH B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 8 28.0 2-1/4
4 12 SIGHT SUCCESS E J Moreira · J Size 11 3.9 2-1/2
5 8 SHINING GEM CP K Teetan · P F Yiu 1 5.6 2-3/4
6 9 AMAZING ONE PLUS XB/P1/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 12 64.0 3-1/2
7 10 LOVING A BOOM TT A Badel · R Gibson 5 5.7 3-1/2
8 6 IGNITING B C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 4.5 4
9 11 MAN STAR V L Ferraris · K H Ting 3 26.0 4-1/2
10 7 SCORES OF FUN TT V Borges · J Size 6 29.0 5
11 1 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 15.0 6-1/2
12 3 DECRYPT XB- M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 19.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY AND RICH2. HANDSOME BO BO+2L3. GOLDEN DASH+2.25L4. SIGHT SUCCESS+2.5L5. SHINING GEM+2.75L6. AMAZING ONE PLUS+3.5L7. LOVING A BOOM+3.5L8. IGNITING+4L9. MAN STAR+4.5L10. SCORES OF FUN+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick IGNITING (24.7%) finished 8th — the winner HARMONY AND RICH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 IGNITING 24.7% 4.05 8
2 12 SIGHT SUCCESS 23.6% 4.24 4
3 10 LOVING A BOOM 11.4% 8.79 7
4 11 MAN STAR 7.3% 13.78 9
5 8 SHINING GEM 6.7% 14.94 5
6 1 GRATEFUL HEART 6.4% 15.53 11
7 4 HARMONY AND RICH 5.3% 18.94 1
8 3 DECRYPT 3.4% 29.55 12
9 2 HANDSOME BO BO 3.3% 30.06 2
10 5 GOLDEN DASH 2.9% 34.67 3
11 9 AMAZING ONE PLUS 2.6% 39.01 6
12 7 SCORES OF FUN 2.5% 39.79 10
IGNITINGSIGHT SUCCESSLOVING A BOOMMAN STARSHINING GEMGRATEFUL HEARTHARMONY AND RICH — wonDECRYPTHANDSOME BO BOGOLDEN DASHAMAZING ONE PLUSSCORES OF FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 210

PLACE

2 30.5

4 58

5 59

QUINELLA

2,4 1,100

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 303

2,5 280.5

4,5 608

FORECAST

4,2 2,054

TIERCE

4,2,5 32,288

TRIO

2,4,5 7,603

FIRST 4

2,4,5,12 9,035

QUARTET

4,2,5,12 256,277

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A2

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,9/2,4,5 1,118,242

7TH DOUBLE

2/2 384.5

2/4 3,518

SIX UP

5,6/3,10/7,10/9,10/2,9/2,4 18,717

5/10/10/9/2/4 2,474,763

1 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

9/2/2 913

9/2/4 6,359