Happy Valley · 2021-10-06

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-06 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. SAVVY KINGMAN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-3/4, with METHANE second and DIONYSUS COLLIN third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.86

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	SAVVY KINGMAN Wire to wire 1.49.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	1	133 lb	1.6	1-3/4
2	2	METHANE B2 L Ferraris · D E Ferraris	L Ferraris	D E Ferraris	7	132 lb	7.6	1-3/4
3	7	DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly P H N Wong · K H Ting	H N Wong	K H Ting	3	114 lb	48.0	1-3/4
4	4	WINNING VOLATILITY B-/PC1 K C Leung · K W Lui	K C Leung	K W Lui	2	124 lb	9.2	2
5	3	MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K H Chan · C H Yip	K H Chan	C H Yip	5	125 lb	17.0	2-1/2
6	5	RED ELYSEES B Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	8	123 lb	5.4	2-3/4
7	6	VICTORIOUS SEEKER B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan	M F Poon	P O'Sullivan	4	121 lb	31.0	4
8	8	JOY MASTER V/TT A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	6	117 lb	17.0	6

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SAVVY KINGMAN (43.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	SAVVY KINGMAN	43.0%	2.32	1	1.6
2	2	METHANE	14.2%	7.04	2	7.6
3	4	WINNING VOLATILITY	12.5%	7.98	4	9.2
4	5	RED ELYSEES	10.1%	9.93	6	5.4
5	3	MURRAY'S PARTNERS	7.9%	12.68	5	17.0
6	8	JOY MASTER	5.5%	18.20	8	17.0
7	6	VICTORIOUS SEEKER	5.0%	20.12	7	31.0
8	7	DIONYSUS COLLIN	1.8%	55.74	3	48.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16

PLACE

1 11

2 16

7 70

QUINELLA

1,2 43.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 21.5

1,7 125.5

2,7 223.5

FORECAST

1,2 50

TIERCE

1,2,7 1,028

TRIO

1,2,7 369

FIRST 4

1,2,4,7 375

QUARTET

1,2,7,4 3,173

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99