Happy Valley · 2021-10-06
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-06 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NOIR RIDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with HAPPY TANGO second and MY MY MY third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NOIR RIDER B 0.57.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 2.8 | N |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY TANGO B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui | M Chadwick | Y S Tsui | 6 | 7.6 | N |
| 3 | 4 | MY MY MY M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 7 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | EUROMISSILE CP/XB H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 3 | 30.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | FARIBAULT CP K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 4.8 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | GOODMANSHIP B M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | PACKING CHAMPION H/P H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 1 | 9.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | THETA HEDGE H/TT1 R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 2 | 81.0 | 7 |
| 10 | 9 | TRONIC MIGHTY XB1 K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 12 | 38.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | TEAM GOODLUCK TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 5 | 15.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 5 | ALLEZ B L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 8 | 35.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | NOIR RIDER | 20.2% | 4.96 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | HAPPY TANGO | 16.0% | 6.25 | 2 |
| 3 | 7 | FARIBAULT | 15.9% | 6.27 | 6 |
| 4 | 11 | TEAM GOODLUCK | 10.8% | 9.30 | 11 |
| 5 | 4 | MY MY MY | 6.7% | 15.03 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 6.6% | 15.17 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | PACKING CHAMPION | 6.4% | 15.59 | 8 |
| 8 | 12 | GOODMANSHIP | 5.6% | 17.80 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | TRONIC MIGHTY | 4.9% | 20.30 | 10 |
| 10 | 5 | ALLEZ | 4.0% | 25.19 | 12 |
| 11 | 2 | EUROMISSILE | 2.1% | 46.67 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | THETA HEDGE | 0.8% | 123.90 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 28
PLACE
3 22
4 34
8 15
QUINELLA
3,8 148.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 147.5
3,8 49.5
4,8 82
FORECAST
8,3 304
TIERCE
8,3,4 2,116
TRIO
3,4,8 533
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 599
QUARTET
8,3,4,1 10,619
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/3 47
2/8 186
3 PICK 1
A1 17.5
A3 —
A2 —