Happy Valley · 2021-10-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TRANSCENDENT, ridden by C L Chau and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with WINNING METHOD second and CLASSIC POSH third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | WINNING METHOD TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 4 | 4.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 8.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | NEARLY FINE H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 65.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | KINDA COOL B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 3 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | RHAPSODY A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 6 | 6.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | JOLLY GOOD HEART A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 2 | 8.9 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | AMARA WIN XB1/TT1 M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 10 | 95.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | COLONEL V V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 8 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | SMILING CITY CP/SR M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 11 | 31.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SPONTANEOUS B1 L Ferraris · P O'Sullivan | L Ferraris | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 20.0 | 6-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | TRANSCENDENT | 16.8% | 5.94 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | JOLLY GOOD HEART | 14.2% | 7.03 | 8 |
| 3 | 2 | KINDA COOL | 13.1% | 7.61 | 5 |
| 4 | 3 | CLASSIC POSH | 12.4% | 8.04 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | WINNING METHOD | 9.1% | 11.02 | 2 |
| 6 | 8 | SPONTANEOUS | 8.0% | 12.53 | 12 |
| 7 | 9 | COLONEL | 6.3% | 15.85 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 6.3% | 15.87 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | RHAPSODY | 5.8% | 17.27 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | SMILING CITY | 4.4% | 22.83 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | AMARA WIN | 2.2% | 44.77 | 9 |
| 12 | 10 | NEARLY FINE | 1.3% | 75.50 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 36
PLACE
1 16
3 22.5
4 16
QUINELLA
1,4 88
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 57.5
1,4 36
3,4 59.5
FORECAST
4,1 131
TIERCE
4,1,3 876
TRIO
1,3,4 186
FIRST 4
1,3,4,10 2,987
QUARTET
4,1,3,10 29,833
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 19
7TH DOUBLE
9/1 111
9/4 457.5