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Happy Valley · 2021-10-06

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly 1.49.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 6 24.0 1/2
2 0 BLASTOISE L Ferraris · D E Ferraris 10 16.0 1/2
3 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT Z Purton · J Size 5 11.0 1/2
4 0 WORLD FAMOUS Led early B/XB V Borges · P F Yiu 9 6.1 2-3/4
5 0 TURIN REDSTAR B H Bentley · D J Whyte 1 5.9 3-1/4
6 0 STIMULATION B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 24.0 4
7 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/XB B Shinn · Y S Tsui 3 39.0 4-1/2
8 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT B K C Leung · D J Hall 7 43.0 16-1/2
9 0 SUPERBELLA V/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 4 3.7 22-1/4
— 0 YOO YOO KING TT K Teetan · A T Millard 8 3.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-06 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. DYNAMIC EAGLE, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with BLASTOISE second and WEALTHY DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite YOO YOO KING did not finish.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DYNAMIC EAGLE—2. BLASTOISE+0.5L3. WEALTHY DELIGHT+0.5L4. WORLD FAMOUS+2.75L5. TURIN REDSTAR+3.25L6. STIMULATION+4L7. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+4.5L8. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT+16.5L9. SUPERBELLA+22.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPERBELLA (25.0%) finished 9th — the winner DYNAMIC EAGLE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SUPERBELLA 25.0% 4.00 9
2 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT 22.1% 4.52 3
3 0 STIMULATION 11.5% 8.69 6
4 0 TURIN REDSTAR 11.4% 8.74 5
5 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE 8.9% 11.28 1
6 0 WORLD FAMOUS 7.7% 12.94 4
7 0 BLASTOISE 7.5% 13.28 2
8 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 3.4% 29.73 8
9 0 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 2.4% 40.89 7
SUPERBELLAWEALTHY DELIGHTSTIMULATIONTURIN REDSTARDYNAMIC EAGLE — wonWORLD FAMOUSBLASTOISEBUNDLE OF DELIGHTARTHUR'S KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 240

PLACE

1 28

7 35.5

8 49.5

QUINELLA

7,8 1,009

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 213.5

1,8 191.5

7,8 243

FORECAST

8,7 1,862

TIERCE

8,7,1 16,601

TRIO

1,7,8 2,435

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 2,475

QUARTET

8,7,1,5 74,870

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 52

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE

8/7 90.5

8/8 622