Happy Valley · 2021-10-06
Race 2
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | ON EXCEL STAR Wire to wire B/XB 1.41.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 4 | 4.1 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 25.0 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | SMART HUNTER SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 33.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 0 | ANONYMA H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 1 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly B K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 3 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | SPARKLING STAR Closed strongly TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 11 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | M M JOHNNY B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 2 | 4.6 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | SHINEALOT Closed strongly A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | MANY GAINS CP-/TT2 V Borges · L Ho | V Borges | L Ho | 10 | 97.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SUPER KIN Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 9 | 9.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | PRIME STAR B/TT- L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 8 | 29.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 0 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 6 | 4.2 | 7-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-10-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ON EXCEL STAR, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 2, with HAPPY JAI JAI second and SMART HUNTER third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | M M JOHNNY | 26.3% | 3.81 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | ON EXCEL STAR | 17.0% | 5.87 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | SEIZE THE SPIRIT | 10.8% | 9.29 | 12 |
| 4 | 0 | SHINEALOT | 8.2% | 12.15 | 8 |
| 5 | 0 | SUPER KIN | 6.9% | 14.53 | 10 |
| 6 | 0 | SPARKLING STAR | 6.7% | 15.00 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 6.6% | 15.08 | 5 |
| 8 | 0 | ANONYMA | 6.5% | 15.42 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | SMART HUNTER | 4.4% | 22.80 | 3 |
| 10 | 0 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 2.6% | 38.15 | 2 |
| 11 | 0 | MANY GAINS | 2.4% | 41.59 | 9 |
| 12 | 0 | PRIME STAR | 1.6% | 61.17 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 41.5
PLACE
2 16
7 89
10 64.5
QUINELLA
2,10 708.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 228.5
2,10 222
7,10 819.5
FORECAST
2,10 1,458
TIERCE
2,10,7 22,025
TRIO
2,7,10 4,383
FIRST 4
2,7,8,10 11,454
QUARTET
2,10,7,8 251,209
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
1/2 108.5
1/10 67
3 PICK 1
A2 23.5
A3 —
A1 —