Happy Valley · 2021-11-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-03 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CIGAR BUDDIES, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by K H Ting, won by SH, with SUNNY AND GOLD second and FOX CHEUNGER third. The 5.8 favourite FOX CHEUNGER finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | CIGAR BUDDIES B 1.10.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 9.2 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 8.0 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT R Maia · K W Lui | R Maia | K W Lui | 1 | 5.8 | HD |
| 4 | 4 | VIVA CHEF B2 A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 2 | 6.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | E HONEY B- K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 3 | 9.4 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE TT C L Chau · D E Ferraris | C L Chau | D E Ferraris | 5 | 9.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | XIANG LAN QI B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 7 | 16.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | ALLOY STAR B/TT- B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 6 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | GOLDEN MISSION B H Bentley · C W Chang | H Bentley | C W Chang | 12 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | VECTOR B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 13.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 1 | ORIENTAL AMIGO B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 8 | 22.0 | 4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUNNY AND GOLD | 15.5% | 6.45 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | FOX CHEUNGER | 11.8% | 8.44 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | VECTOR | 11.5% | 8.73 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 10.6% | 9.44 | 11 |
| 5 | 10 | GOLDEN MISSION | 8.7% | 11.45 | 9 |
| 6 | 5 | ALLOY STAR | 8.6% | 11.69 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | VIVA CHEF | 7.0% | 14.36 | 4 |
| 8 | 12 | SUNNY SMILE | 6.4% | 15.65 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | XIANG LAN QI | 6.3% | 15.96 | 7 |
| 10 | 1 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 5.2% | 19.06 | 12 |
| 11 | 8 | E HONEY | 5.2% | 19.16 | 5 |
| 12 | 9 | CIGAR BUDDIES | 3.2% | 30.93 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 92.5
PLACE
2 27.5
6 21
9 34.5
QUINELLA
2,9 554.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 104.5
2,9 191.5
6,9 100.5
FORECAST
9,2 1,434
TIERCE
9,2,6 6,766
TRIO
2,6,9 964
FIRST 4
2,4,6,9 1,353
QUARTET
9,2,6,4 34,768
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 17.5
A1 —
A2 —