Happy Valley · 2021-11-03
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-03 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. GO BALLISTIC, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D E Ferraris, won by HD, with JOLLY FOREVER second and FORTUNE TRIPLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.8 favourite SUPER HONG KONG finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT 2.18.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 3 | 5.7 | HD |
| 2 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 9 | 9.4 | HD |
| 3 | 8 | FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 8 | 24.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | SUPER HONG KONG B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 2 | 4.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 4 | 7.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 10 | 14.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | EL VALIENTE B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 7.8 | 10-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | WINNING GENGHIS Led early V1 C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 89.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 7 | 21.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | GREAT TIMES B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 1 | 48.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B C Y Ho · K H Ting | C Y Ho | K H Ting | 11 | 7.0 | 13-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE V K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 12 | 7.6 | 14-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SUPER HONG KONG | 20.7% | 4.82 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | EL VALIENTE | 19.0% | 5.26 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | GO BALLISTIC | 13.3% | 7.55 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | CROWN AVENUE | 9.7% | 10.31 | 12 |
| 5 | 7 | EXALTATION | 9.2% | 10.88 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | JOLLY FOREVER | 7.4% | 13.56 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | WEALTHY EMPLOYEE | 7.2% | 13.94 | 11 |
| 8 | 9 | FORTUNE PATROL | 4.8% | 20.93 | 9 |
| 9 | 8 | FORTUNE TRIPLE | 3.4% | 29.55 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | MAGNETISM | 2.9% | 34.80 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | GREAT TIMES | 1.3% | 76.72 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | WINNING GENGHIS | 1.2% | 81.09 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 57.5
PLACE
5 20.5
8 72
10 31
QUINELLA
5,10 272
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 227.5
5,10 97
8,10 302
FORECAST
5,10 625
TIERCE
5,10,8 11,093
TRIO
5,8,10 1,856
FIRST 4
2,5,8,10 2,716
QUARTET
5,10,8,2 77,671
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
9/5 1,381.5
9/10 149.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 20.5