Happy Valley · 2021-11-03
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A SMILE LIKE YOURS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with SHOWINA second and SIGHT HERO third. The 3.1 favourite SIGHT HERO finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS 1.10.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 9 | 8.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | SHOWINA B K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 12 | 34.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SIGHT HERO B H Bentley · D A Hayes | H Bentley | D A Hayes | 4 | 3.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | HONEST WAY CP/TT J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 2 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 10 | LUMEN BABA H-/XB-/B1/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 52.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 12 | KING'S TROOPER TT V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 7 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 2 | BINGO BINGO B1 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 8 | 5.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | HEROIC CHAMPION M F Poon · P O'Sullivan | M F Poon | P O'Sullivan | 6 | 29.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CORDYCEPS TWO A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 10 | 35.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | PACKING CHAMPION H/P H N Wong · L Ho | H N Wong | L Ho | 1 | 23.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | FORTUNE HERO B/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson | M Chadwick | R Gibson | 11 | 19.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | ALLEZ B C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 5 | 87.0 | 15-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | BINGO BINGO | 30.8% | 3.25 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | SIGHT HERO | 20.5% | 4.88 | 3 |
| 3 | 4 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 12.5% | 7.99 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | HONEST WAY | 6.4% | 15.52 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | KING'S TROOPER | 5.6% | 17.72 | 6 |
| 6 | 1 | SHOWINA | 5.4% | 18.52 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | FORTUNE HERO | 5.1% | 19.53 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | LUMEN BABA | 4.6% | 21.87 | 5 |
| 9 | 6 | ALLEZ | 2.7% | 37.25 | 12 |
| 10 | 8 | CORDYCEPS TWO | 2.6% | 38.35 | 9 |
| 11 | 11 | PACKING CHAMPION | 2.6% | 38.46 | 10 |
| 12 | 9 | HEROIC CHAMPION | 1.1% | 88.06 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 80.5
PLACE
1 83.5
4 19
5 13.5
QUINELLA
1,4 1,042
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 265.5
1,5 167.5
4,5 39.5
FORECAST
4,1 1,794
TIERCE
4,1,5 5,698
TRIO
1,4,5 774
FIRST 4
1,3,4,5 517
QUARTET
4,1,5,3 18,064
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/1 483
5/4 445
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 19.5
A3 —