Happy Valley · 2021-11-03
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-11-03 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHEERFUL DAYS, ridden by A Badel and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-3/4, with PRESENCE second and TOTAL POWER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite WEALTHY DELIGHT finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B 1.40.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 11 | 7.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | PRESENCE Closed strongly C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D J Hall | A Hamelin | D J Hall | 2 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 5 | 9.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | MERCURIAL Led early H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 8 | 7.6 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 7 | 18.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | WEALTHY DELIGHT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 1 | 2.2 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | GREEN AEON H B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 9 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | TURIN REDSTAR B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 7.3 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | WIND SPEEDER B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 6 | 88.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | ABLE REIGN B R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 4 | 89.0 | 39-1/4 |
| — | 7 | AMARA WIN T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WEALTHY DELIGHT | 33.6% | 2.98 | 7 |
| 2 | 11 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 14.6% | 6.83 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | ROYAL PRIDE | 9.5% | 10.55 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | MERCURIAL | 8.3% | 12.03 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | TURIN REDSTAR | 7.2% | 13.84 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | PRESENCE | 6.8% | 14.73 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 6.5% | 15.50 | 4 |
| 8 | 9 | TOTAL POWER | 6.2% | 16.10 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | GREEN AEON | 4.7% | 21.15 | 8 |
| 10 | 10 | ABLE REIGN | 1.4% | 69.19 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | WIND SPEEDER | 1.2% | 86.00 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 79
PLACE
3 69.5
9 30
11 27.5
QUINELLA
3,11 1,107
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 430.5
3,11 279
9,11 151
FORECAST
11,3 3,035
TIERCE
11,3,9 21,320
TRIO
3,9,11 3,974
FIRST 4
2,3,9,11 5,048
QUARTET
11,3,9,2 142,180
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 25.5
6TH DOUBLE
3/3 322.5
3/11 459