Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 19:51

Race 2

Class 1 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 7 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. WILL POWER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT second and RED DESERT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite THE ROCK finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.37.62

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	WILL POWER Closed strongly XB 1.37.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Whyte	B Shinn	D J Whyte	7	130 lb	6.4	1-1/2
2	3	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Led early CP/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz	L Ferraris	A S Cruz	1	126 lb	10.0	1-1/2
3	7	RED DESERT Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	5	118 lb	11.0	3
4	4	TELECOM FIGHTERS C L Chau · Y S Tsui	C L Chau	Y S Tsui	6	120 lb	20.0	3-1/2
5	5	SILVER EXPRESS B V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	3	122 lb	3.6	5-1/4
6	6	THE ROCK B1 J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	2	120 lb	3.0	5-1/4
7	1	KINGS SHIELD CP K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	4	133 lb	4.5	23-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SILVER EXPRESS (34.7%) finished 5th — the winner WILL POWER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	SILVER EXPRESS	34.7%	2.88	5	3.6
2	6	THE ROCK	22.9%	4.36	6	3.0
3	4	TELECOM FIGHTERS	11.5%	8.66	4	20.0
4	3	CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT	11.5%	8.72	2	10.0
5	1	KINGS SHIELD	8.5%	11.74	7	4.5
6	2	WILL POWER	5.4%	18.37	1	6.4
7	7	RED DESERT	5.4%	18.61	3	11.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 64.5

PLACE

2 17.5

3 25.5

7 32

QUINELLA

2,3 305.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 86

2,7 103.5

3,7 122.5

FORECAST

2,3 674

TIERCE

2,3,7 3,736

TRIO

2,3,7 626

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 1,066

QUARTET

2,3,7,4 20,690

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/2 4,352

12/3 1,083

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 21

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