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Sha Tin · 2021-12-29 · 19:19

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-12-29 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. E HONEY, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with RUN RUN GOOD second and WINNING STRIKES third. The 2.0 favourite RUN RUN GOOD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 E HONEY H-/XB- 1.09.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C Fownes 12 48.0 N
2 7 RUN RUN GOOD B/TT J Moreira · K L Man 5 2.0 N
3 11 WINNING STRIKES B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 10 5.5 1-1/2
4 9 RAGING BLAZE P2/TT V Borges · J Size 2 10.0 2-1/2
5 10 THE ELITES TT H Bentley · F C Lor 8 11.0 2-3/4
6 6 GENERAL TRUMP B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 3 9.5 3
7 4 FANTASTIC FABIO K C Leung · C H Yip 4 18.0 6-1/4
8 5 GALLANT CAVALIER B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 32.0 7-1/2
9 8 VIVA MAMA CP/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 11 28.0 7-3/4
10 1 LUCKY TREASURE H/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 79.0 9
11 3 BLAZING BEAT B/SR1 H N Wong · C W Chang 7 44.0 11-3/4
12 2 SHANGHAI POWER B K H Chan · Y S Tsui 9 12.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. E HONEY2. RUN RUN GOOD+0.05L3. WINNING STRIKES+1.5L4. RAGING BLAZE+2.5L5. THE ELITES+2.75L6. GENERAL TRUMP+3L7. FANTASTIC FABIO+6.25L8. GALLANT CAVALIER+7.5L9. VIVA MAMA+7.75L10. LUCKY TREASURE+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick RUN RUN GOOD (31.6%) finished 2nd — the winner E HONEY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 RUN RUN GOOD 31.6% 3.16 2
2 9 RAGING BLAZE 13.4% 7.48 4
3 6 GENERAL TRUMP 11.5% 8.71 6
4 2 SHANGHAI POWER 9.2% 10.92 12
5 8 VIVA MAMA 8.2% 12.20 9
6 10 THE ELITES 8.2% 12.26 5
7 4 FANTASTIC FABIO 5.2% 19.11 7
8 3 BLAZING BEAT 3.2% 31.20 11
9 11 WINNING STRIKES 3.2% 31.47 3
10 12 E HONEY 3.1% 31.88 1
11 5 GALLANT CAVALIER 1.8% 55.43 8
12 1 LUCKY TREASURE 1.5% 67.92 10
RUN RUN GOODRAGING BLAZEGENERAL TRUMPSHANGHAI POWERVIVA MAMATHE ELITESFANTASTIC FABIOBLAZING BEATWINNING STRIKESE HONEY — wonGALLANT CAVALIERLUCKY TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 481

PLACE

7 12

11 18.5

12 103

QUINELLA

7,12 491.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,11 29

7,12 160

11,12 279.5

FORECAST

12,7 1,942

TIERCE

12,7,11 8,938

TRIO

7,11,12 705

FIRST 4

7,9,11,12 1,714

QUARTET

12,7,11,9 77,937

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 34